2024 - Round 8 : The Triumph of Hope

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Anyone who tips all nine winners this week will have taken their first step towards canonisation, as four games are expected to be won by less than 4 points, and three more by only about two goals. The expected number of favourite wins is just 5.6 from 9 and the average expected margin is a ridiculous 11.5 points per game.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Despite the coin-tossy nature of a number of the contests, the lone contrarians this week amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters are Home Sweet Home in 4 games, and Consult The Ladder, ENS_Linear, and MoSSBODS_Marg in just 1 game each.

Bookie Knows Best’s spot at the top of the Leaderboard is, therefore, safe for another week.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in five games, including 16 points in the Crows v Power game, 15 points in the Dogs v Hawks game, and 13 points in the Eagles v Dons game.

MoSSBODS_Marg has Extreme Predictor status in six games this week, and Bookie_9 in four.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are four games with double-digit percentage point forecast ranges, including Crows v Power (15% points) and Eagles v Dons (14% points).

MoSSBODS_Prob has Extreme Predictor status in seven games this week, and Bookie_LPSO in six.

WAGERS

This week Investors have just four head-to-head bets totalling just under 9% of the Head-to-Head Fund, and five line bets totalling just over 18% of the Line Fund, as set out below. It’s sheer bravery or sheer folly, depending on how we look on Sunday evening.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The round’s Ready Reckoner reveals that risk is somewhat concentrated this week, with West Coast carrying the largest risk (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes) in that the difference between an Eagles win and a loss by 14 points or more represents a swing of 7.8c in the value of the Combined Portfolio. Next most risk is carried by Port Adelaide (5.9%), Richmond (5.6%), Hawthorn (5%), and then GWS (4%).

So, just five teams carry the fate of the Funds, but the spread is a little better than last week’s.

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just over 14c, while a worst case set - which, of course, could never happen - would snip just under 14c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.