2024 - Round 20 : Overs/Unders

/

There are generally higher levels of agreement this week amongst all four forecasters, with differences mostly less than a goal. Overall, MoSHBODS is again the most optimistic in terms of the average forecast Total, being about a half to a full goal higher than the other forecasters per game.

The debate this week is mostly about the lowest-scoring game:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Carlton v Port Adelaide

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: St Kilda v Essendon

  • Bookmakers: Melbourne v GWS (Sportsbet also St Kilda v Essendon)

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS and Bookmakers: Geelong

  • MoSHBODS: Fremantle

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: West Coast

WAGERS

Investors have wagers in only two games this week, both unders, each of which has once again been accommodated by a single bookmaker. An overs wager has been passed over due to forecast rain in Melbourne on Sunday.

The two wagers total just on 6% of the original Overs/Unders Fund.

The estimated overlays for the games where we have wagers are 5.6 and 8.8 points, and the wager sizes range are 1.9% to 4.1% accordingly.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) were shared this week, with only MoSSBODS missing out:

  • Game Margins: Sportsbet

  • Home Team Scores: Sportsbet

  • Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS

  • Game Totals: TAB

The Game Total season-long title switched hands, moving from MoSSBODS to the TAB, although MoSSBODS remains very close to the lead. The leaders and leads across all four metrics are now as follows:

Game Margins: TAB 19 points ahead of Sportsbet and 59 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS: 21 points ahead of the TAB and 39 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Away Team Scores: MoSSBODS: 2 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 20 points ahead of the TAB

Game Totals: TAB 8 points ahead of MoSSBODS, 8 points ahead of the TAB, and 9 points ahead of MoSHBODS

MoSSBODS had wagers on five games last week, one overs with the TAB that finished 0 and 1, three unders wagers with the TAB that finished 1 and 2, and a single unders wager with Sportsbet that finished 0 and 1 also.

It ended then at 24 and 30 with the TAB, and at 19 and 12 with Sportsbet, for an overall 43 and 42 record.

Across all games, MoSSBODS landed 3 from 9 against the TAB and Sportsbet, which took it to 89 from 162 (55%) against the TAB, and 91 from 162 (56%) against Sportsbet. MoSHBODS also landed 3 from 9 against the TAB, which took it to 86 from 162 (53%) and landed just 2 from 9 against Sportsbet, which took it to 87 from 162 (54%) against them.

In a new table I’ve again recorded the week-by-week forecasting performance of both twins, and the wagering performance of MoSSBODS.

From Round 8 to 19, MoSSBODS is 58 and 41 (58%) against the TAB and Sportsbet, and MoSHBODS is 56 and 43 (56%) against the TAB and Sportsbet.