2024 - Round 20 : We Might Have Some Regress

/

Again this week, two-thirds of the games are expected to be won by less than three goals, despite the fact that, in half of those games, the teams are separated by 7 spots or more on the competition ladder. In two other games the expected margins are about 4 goals while the ladder separations are 5 and 11 spots, and, in the last game, the expected margin is just under 6 goals and the ladder separation is 12 spots.

All of which is to say that the competition ladder right now is only a rough indicator of many teams’ relative ability. If MoSHBODS is to be trusted, the rank correlation between the ranking of teams based on their MoSHBODS Combined Rating and the ranking of them provided by the competition ladder is just +0.86.)

The all-game average expected margin is 14.7 points per game, which is almost 4 points per game lower than last week.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Contrarianism this week is confined to Home Sweet Home in three games, Consult The Ladder and RSMP_Simple in two, and RSMP_Weighted in one.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in four games this week: Dockers v Eagles (17 points), Pies v Tigers (16 points), Roos v Cats (15 points), and Dees v Giants (13 points).

MoSSBODS_Marg has Extreme Predictor status in five games this week, and Bookie_9 in four games.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are only two games with double-digit percentage point forecast ranges: Dees v Giants (12% points) and Crows v Hawks (10% points).

MoSSBODS_Prob has Extreme Predictor status in seven games this week, and Bookie_OE and MoSHBODS_Prob in four games each.

WAGERS

It’s a somewhat more restrained version of the MoS twins that has approached the markets this weekend.

The bookmaker dance was confined to two line market bets. The first was the Dees v Giants match where Investors were seeking a wager of 3.9% of the original Line Fund on the Dees -1.5 at $1.90, but eventually settled on 1.4% at that line and price, and another 2.1% at -2.5 and $1.90.

The second was the Crows v Hawks match where Investors were seeking a wager of 3.3% of the original Line Fund on the Crows -1.5 at $1.90, but eventually settled on 1.4% at that line and price, and another 1.5% at -2.5 and $1.90.

In total, Investors have just over 8% of the original Head-to-Head Fund on four teams, and just under 10% of the original Line Fund on four teams - three of them the same.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The Ready Reckoner reveals that Melbourne carry the most risk this week in the sense that the difference between a win by 3 points and a loss represents 5.5% of the Combined Portfolio. Next most risk is borne by Adelaide (5.3%), then Richmond (3.5%), Port Adelaide (1.7%), and then St Kilda (0.6%).

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just over 8c, while a worst case set would snip about the same off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.