2023 - Team Ratings After Round 19

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On MoSSBODS this week, the only movements at the top were Geelong moving into 3rd to supplant Melbourne, who fell to 5th. Brisbane Lions retained top spot ahead of Port Adelaide. On MoSHBODS, however, Geelong climbed into top spot, Brisbane Lions fell to 2nd, Collingwood retained 3rd, and Port Adelaide climbed two spots to take 4th.

Only three team moved by more than a single spot on MoSSBODS (Geelong up 2, Melbourne down 2, and Gold Coast down 3) and only three did the same on MoSHBODS (Port Adelaide and GWS up 2 spots, and Melbourne down 2 spots).

In total, eight teams changed places on MoSSBODS, and 11 changed places on MoSHBODS.

The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.9931 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 3.65 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.

On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS now with a Top 3 of Power, Lions, and Pies, and MoSHBODS with Lions, Power, and Crows, while on defence MoSSBODS now has a Top 3 of Dees, Cats, and Dogs, while MoSHBODS still has it as Cats, Pies, and Dees.

MoSSBODS now has 10 teams rated as above average on offence, the same number as does MoSHBODS. MoSSBODS also still has 13 teams rated as above average on defence, while MoSHBODS has only 10.

To put the latest MoSSBODS Ratings in some historical context, here are the Ratings of all teams after Round 19 of their respective home-and-away seasons across V/AFL history (noting that, in some seasons, there would not have been 19 home-and-away rounds)

Brisbane Lions remain the only team with a Combined Rating in the top 50% of teams that eventually went on to make the Grand Final. There are still just seven more teams that are Rated outside the bottom decile for teams that eventually made the Grand Final.

We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current Rating.

On MoSSBODS, 9 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (no change), 4 are rated negatively on both (down 1), 1 is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 4 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change).

The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.73, which is down a little this week.

And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked only two teams this week, switching the Lions into 2nd and relegating the Cats into 3rd..

At the top, things remain very close, with Collingwood’s lead over the Lions just 0.6 Rating Points, and the Lions over the Cats just 1.2 Rating Points.

There are now 11 teams rated better-than-average by MARS and then something of a gap back to St Kilda on 995.6.

The Rating gap between first and last now stands at almost 100 Rating Points, which is up a few Points on last week, while that between first and eighth now stands at under 21 Rating Points. The gap between first and fourth is just under 7 Rating Points.

At the same point last year:

  • The gap between 1st and 18th was just under 90 Rating Points

  • The gap between 1st and 8th was just over 22 Rating Points

  • The gap between 1st and 4th was just over 8 Rating Points

Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:

HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: St Kilda

LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Geelong, Sydney and Carlton

MARS this week provides the most outlying rankings at seven, ahead of MoSSBODS on six. and MoSHBODS on five.

MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of seven teams, MoSSBODS and MARS about nine, and MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS about seven teams.

Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that Collingwood (5 spots) now has the widest range of rankings, and that there are now only two teams for whom the rankings span a range of more than two spots.

There are also five teams that the Systems unanimously rank the same way: Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Sydney, West Coast, and Western Bulldogs