2023 - Round 20 : And Then There Were Five

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Only three of Round 20 contests involve teams that are fewer than 6 spots apart on the competition ladder. We have:

  • Two games where the teams are separated by one ladder position and where the lines are between 0.5 and 1.5 points

  • One game where the teams are separated by two ladder positions and where the line is 9.5

  • Three games where the teams are separated by between six and eight ladder positions and where the lines are between 13.5 and 42.5 points

  • Three games where the teams are separated by 10 or 11 ladder positions and where the lines are between 2.5 and 22.5 points

On average, the opposing teams are separated by 6.3 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.86.

The overall average bookmaker expected margin is 14.1 points per game, which is down by about 4 points on the Round 19 average, and down by over 7 points on the all-time average for Round 20s. It moves the all-Season average to 18.1 points per game.

Next, the tips.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

This week’s underdog support comes from Home Sweet Home in five games, MoSSBODS_Marg in two games, and MoSHBODS_Marg, ENS_Linear, and the RSMP twins in one game each.

In particular, there’s strong underdog support (again) for the Swans.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in all but one game, including 22 points in the Pies v Blues game, 13 points in the Crows v Power, and Eagles v Roos game, 12 points in the Cats v Dockers, and Hawks v Saints games, and 11 points in the Suns v Lions, Dons v Swans, and Tigers v Dees games.

Bookie_9 has Extreme Predictor status in five games this week, Bookie_3 and MoSSBODS_Marg in four games each.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are five games with double-digit percentage point forecast ranges: Pies v Blues (23% points), Crows v Power (12% points), Eagles v Roos (12% points), Dons v Swans (10% points), and Tigers v Dees (10% points).

MoSSBODS_Prob and Bookie_LPSO have Extreme Predictor status in five games, and Bookie_RE and MoSHBODS_Prob in three games each.

WAGERS

Investors will have three head-to-head wagers in Round 20 representing just under 3% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and three line wagers representing just over 5% of the original Line Fund..

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The week’s Ready Reckoner shows that Carlton carries by far the greatest risk in terms of the difference between the best and worst possible outcomes, which for them is a 4.2c swing. Next comes Kangaroos (1.5c), then Adelaide and Richmond (both 0.9c), then Gold Coast (0.8c). and finally Sydney (0.6c).

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by 4.7c, while a worst case set would snip 4.2c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.