2023 - Round 8 : Overs/Unders

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Overall, the MoS twins’ Totals forecasts are quite similar to the bookmakers’ this week, but there is some disagreement at the individual game level.

As highests and lowests, we have:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: Richmond v West Coast

  • Bookmakers: Port Adelaide v Essendon (and Carlton v Brisbane Lions for the TAB)

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: Fremantle v Hawthorn

  • Bookmakers: North Melbourne v St Kilda

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS: Geelong

  • MoSHBODS and Bookmakers: Richmond

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: North Melbourne

WAGERS

Investors have only one wager this week, having passed on two other bets due to forecast rain for Melbourne and Geelong.

The estimated overlay for the game where we’ve a wager is just under 8 points.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) this week were shared around, with MoSSBODS taking Away Team Scores, MoSHBODS taking Game Totals, and Sportsbet taking Game Margins and Home Team Scores.

MoSSBODS still holds the season-long best MAE for Game Margins, and MoSHBODS holds it for Away Team Scores and now Game Totals as well, while the TAB holds it for Home Team Scores.

The leads are as follows:

Game Margins: MoSSBODS 2 points ahead of the TAB and 12.6 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Home Team Scores: TAB 7.5 points ahead of Sportsbet (and 41.9 points ahead of MoSHBODS)

Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS 4.7 points ahead of MoSSBODS and 8.9 points ahead of the TAB

Game Totals: MoSHBODS 1.9 points ahead of Sportsbet, 11.9 points ahead of the TAB, and 21.3 points ahead of MoSHBODS

MoSSBODS had four wagers last week, landing 1 from 3 against the TAB, and 1 from 1 against Sportsbet.

Across all games, MoSSBODS recorded a 5 from 9 result against the TAB, and a 4 from 9 result against Sportsbet, while MoSHBODS recorded a 5 from 9 result against both bookmakers.

That moved MoSSBODS to a 29 from 63 (46%) record against the TAB, and a 28 from 63 (44% ) record against Sportsbet. MoSHBODS now has a 32 from 63 (51%) record against the TAB, and a 31 from 63 (49%) record against Sportsbet.