2023 - Round 8 : Measured

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This week’s fare includes two games with quite large handicaps that are between teams separated by only one or two ladder positions:

  • Richmond 16th vs West Coast 18th (Richmond -38.5)

  • Geelong 7th vs Adelaide 8th (Geelong -31.5)

For the remaining games, we have:

  • Two more games where the teams are separated by two spots on the ladder (where the starts are 2.5 and 10.5 points)

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly three spots (where the start is 17.5 points)

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly four spots (where the start is 14.5 points)

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly ten spots (where the start is 16.5 points)

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly 11 spots (where the start is 17.5 points)

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly 12 spots (where the start is 37.5 points)

On average, then, the opposing teams are separated by just over 5 ladder spots.

The week’s average bookmaker expected margin is 20.7 points per game, which is down by half a goal on the Round 7 average, and just over a point lower than the all-time average for Round 8s. It drives the all-Season average up to 16.4 points per game.

To the tips …

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

This week’s underdog support comes from Home Sweet Home (4 games) and the MoS twins (1 game each).

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in four games, including 18 points in the North Melbourne v St Kilda game, 16 points in the Gold Coast v Melbourne game, 12 points in the GWS v Western Bulldogs, and 11 points in the Richmond v West Coast game.

Bookie_3 has Extreme Predictor status in five games this week, and RSMP_Simple and the MoS twins in three games each.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there is only one game with a double-digit percentage point range: Gold Coast v Western Bulldog (15% points).

MoSSBODS_Prob has the most extreme probability estimates in five games this week, and MoSHBODS_Prob in four.

WAGERS

This week, there are two head-to-head wagers totalling 3% of the Head-to-Head Fund, and three line wagers totalling just over 1% of the Line Fund. The head-to-head wagers are 0.9% and 2.1% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and the line wagers range in size from 0.1% to 0.8% of the original Line Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Only the Western Bulldogs wager is on a favourite and, in aggregate, all five bets represent just 1.6% of the original Combined Portfolio.

Another live version of the Ready Reckoner this week:

CARLTON

  • Win: 2.1% x 0.97 x 30% + 0.2% x 0.9 x 65% = +0.7c

  • Draw: 2.1% x (1.97/2 - 1) x 30% + 0.2% x 0.9 x 65% = +0.1c

  • Lose by 1 or 2 points: 2.1% x 0.97 x 30% + 0.2% x 0.9 x 65% = -0.5c

  • Otherwise: -2.1% x 30% - 0.2% x 65% = -0.7c

GOLD COAST

  • Win: 0.9% x 2.35 x 30% + 0.8% x 0.9 x 65% = +1.1c

  • Draw: 0.9% x (3.35/2 - 1) x 30% + 0.8% x 0.9 x 65% = +0.6c

  • Lose by 1 to 20 points: -0.9% x 30% + 0.8% x 0.9 x 65% = +0.2c

  • Otherwise: -0.9% x 30% - 0.8% x 65% = -0.8c

WESTERN BULLDOGS

  • Win by 9 points or more: 0.1% x 0.9 x 65% = +0.1c

  • Otherwise: -0.1% x 65% = -0.1c

Gold Coast clearly carries the most risk for Investors this weekend, with the difference between best and worst results for them equalling 1.9% of the original Combined Portfolio. The next-most risk is carried by Carlton (1.4%), then Western Bulldogs (0.2%).

A best-case set of results will see the Combined Portfolio increase by 1.9c, and a worst-case set will see it fall by 1.6c.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.