2023 - Round 5 : Overs/Unders

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This week sees the weather-ignorant MoS twins forecasting higher totals than the bookmakers in almost every game, but also sees some relatively high levels of disagreement between the two bookmakers themselves. I suspect I might have dipped into those markets just after the TAB had made a full adjustment for the forecast inclement weather, and before Sportsbet had fully done likewise.

This week’s highests and lowests data reflects the high levels of disagreement:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS and TAB: Adelaide v Carlton

  • MoSHBODS: Melbourne v Essendon

  • Sportsbet: Adelaide v Carlton, and Sydney v Richmond

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: St Kilda v Collingwood

  • Bookmakers: Port Adelaide v Western Bulldogs

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Geelong

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: West Coast

WAGERS

Were it not from the forecast downpours, Investors would be facing five overs and one unders wager this week. Instead, they face just the unders wager, which, given last weeks’ 0 and 5 performance, is probably for the best.

The estimated overlay for the lone wagered-on contest is 7 points.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) this week were dominated by the TAB who took them for Game Margins, Home Team Scores, and Away Team Scores, leaving only Total Scores to Sportsbet.

MoSHBODS, however, did well enough to hold onto the season-long best MAE for Game Margins and Away Team Scores, but gave back Game Totals to Sportsbet, who now hold the best record for that and for Home Team Scores.

The leads are as follows:

Game Margins: MoSHBODS 1.4 points ahead of both bookmakers, and 4.3 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Home Team Scores: Sportsbet 10 points ahead of the TAB (and 72 points ahead of MoSHBODS)

Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS 4 points ahead of MoSSBODS (and 15 points ahead of the TAB)

Game Totals: Sportsbet 5 points ahead of the TAB (and 33 points ahead of MoSHBODS)

MoSSBODS had five wagers last week, all five of which were unsuccessful. There were 2 losing overs and 2 losing unders wagers with the TAB, and a lone losing unders wager with Sportsbet.

Across all games, MoSSBODS recorded 1 from 9 results against both bookmakers, while MoSHBODS recorded 2 from 9 against both bookmakers.

That moved MoSSBODS to a 15 from 36 (42% ) record against both bookmakers, and MoSHBODS to a 17 from 36 (47%) record against the TAB, and an 18 from 36 (50%) record against Sportsbet.