2023 - Round 4 : We Continue

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In stark contrast with last week, according to the TAB Bookmaker we can expect single digit victory margins in only two games this week, and margins of under 3 goals in just five games.

In the remaining games, expected margins range from about three-and-a-half to just under seven-goals.

The overall average expected margin is just under 18 points per game, which is almost three points higher than the average for the same Round in 2022, but just under the historical average for the Round.

That figure of 17.9 points per game drives the all-Season average up to just under 13 points per game, which is virtually identical to last year’s average through Round 3.

Whilst the average expected margin has been just under 13 points per game so far in 2023, the average actual margin has been 29.2 points per game.

Anyway, on to the tips …

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

There’s only a little contrarianism this week, but it’s now denoted by a much more recognisable dog. Contributors are the usuals in Consult The Ladder and Home Sweet Home, joined this week nby the RSMP twins in one game, and ENS_Linear in two.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in four games, including 20 points in the North Melbourne v Carlton game, 19 points in the West Coast v Melbourne game, 16 points in the Adelaide v Fremantle game, and 15 points in the Geelong v Hawthorn game. In every other game the differences are in about the 6 to 9-point range.

MoSSBODS_Marg is the most extreme Predictor in eight of the nine games. No other Predictor manages to be the same in more than three games.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are four games with double-digit percentage point ranges in the probability estimates, these being the same games in which we have double-digit ranges for the margin forecasts.

MoSSBODS_Marg has the most extreme probability estimates in all nine games with, here too, no other Predictor attaining the same status in more than three games.

WAGERS

There’s plenty of wagering to keep Investors worried again this weekend, though it’s more concentrated in time than it is on teams.

The three head-to-head wagers total just over 6% of the Head-to-Head Fund, and the five line wagers total just over 5% of the Line Fund. The head-to-head wagers range in size from 0.4% to 3.6% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and the line wagers range in size from 0.1% to 2% of the original Line Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Only one of the head-to-head and two of the line bets are on underdogs and, in aggregate, all eight bets represent just over 5% of the original Combined Portfolio, as can be seen from the Ready Reckoner below.

What can also be seen is that the West Coast carry the most risk for Investors this weekend, with the difference between an Eagles’ win and a loss by 41 points or more equal to 3.3% of the original Combined Portfolio. The next-most risk is carried by Adelaide (2.8%), then Essendon (1.8%), then Carlton (1.9%) and, finally, Hawthorn (0.5%).

A best-case set of results will see the Combined Portfolio increase by 5c, and a worst-case set will see it fall by 5.4c.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.