2023 - Round 4 : Overs/Unders

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It’s been hard to get a fix on the trend for Total scores this season after the first round gave us 174 points per game, the second 170.2, and the third just 155.6 points per game.

That’s contributed to some of the disagreement this week between the MoS twins and the bookmakers and resulted in a mean absolute difference of about 7 points per game.

This week’s highests and lowests data reflects the high levels of disagreement:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS: Essendon v GWS

  • MoSHBODS: Sydney v Port Adelaide

  • Bookmakers: Brisbane Lions v Collingwood

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: St Kilda v Gold Coast

  • Bookmakers: Adelaide v Fremantle

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS and Bookmakers: Melbourne

  • MoSHBODS: Sydney

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoS twins: North Melbourne

  • Bookmakers: West Coast

WAGERS

As usual, disagreement translates into wagering, so this week Investors have five bets across the nine games comprising three unders and two overs wagers.

The estimated overlays for those five games range from 6.5 to almost 17 points.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) this week were dominated by MoSSBODS who took them for Game Margins, Away Team Scores, and Total Scores, leaving only Home Team Scores to Sportsbet.

MoSHBODS, however, did well enough to hold onto the season-long best MAE for Game Totals, and to wrest Game Margins and Away Team Scores away from Sportsbet, who now is best only for Home Team Scores.

The leads are as follows:

Game Margins: MoSHBODS 11 points ahead of MoSSBODS (and 33 points ahead of Sportsbet)

Home Team Scores: Sportsbet 10 points ahead of the TAB (and 35 points ahead of MoSHBODS)

Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS 5 points ahead of MoSSBODS (and 20 points ahead of the TAB)

Game Totals: MoSHBODS 6 points ahead of MoSSBODS (and 24 points ahead of Sportsbet)

MoSSBODS had two wagers last week, both of which were successful. There was a lone unders bet with the TAB and a lone overs bet with Sportsbet. Overall, MoSSBODS is now 2 and 1 with the TAB, and 1 and 0 with Sportsbet.

Across all games, MoSSBODS recorded 5 from 9 results against both bookmakers, while MoSHBODS recorded 5 from 9 against the TAB, and 6 from 9 against Sportsbet.

That moved MoSSBODS to a 14 from 27 (52% ) record against both bookmakers, and MoSHBODS to a 15 from 27 (56%) record against the TAB, and a 16 from 27 (59%) record against Sportsbet.