2023 - Round 3 : Overs/Unders

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A little more disagreement this week between the twins and the bookmakers at the individual game level, though broad agreement once again at the aggregate level.

This week’s highests and lowests data is as follows:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: Port Adelaide v Adelaide

  • TAB and Sportsbet: Collingwood v Richmond

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Fremantle v West Coast

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: Port Adelaide

  • TAB and Sportsbet: Collingwood

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: West Coast

WAGERS

This week, Investors have two wagers, one unders with the TAB, and one overs with Sportsbet.

The estimated overlays for those two games are 10 and 12 points, and the average overlay across all nine games is about 4 points

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) this week were shared around, with MoSHBODS taking them for Home Team Scores and Game Totals, Sportsbet taking them for Game Margins, and the two bookmakers sharing them for Away Team Scores..

That left MoSHBODS with the season-long best MAE for Game Totals, and Sportsbet with the season-long bests for Game Margins, Home Team Scores, and Away Team Scores.

The leads are as follows:

Game Margins: Sportsbet 1 point ahead of MoSHBODS

Home Team Scores: Sportsbet 6 points ahead of the TAB (and 13 points ahead of MoSHBODS)

Away Team Scores: Sportsbet 3 points ahead of the TAB (and 10 points ahead of MoSHBODS)

Game Totals: MoSHBODS 4 points ahead of Sportsbet (and 7 points ahead of MoSSBODS)

MoSSBODS had no wagers last week and so still has a 1 and 1 (50%) record with the TAB.

Across all games, MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS recorded 6 from 9 results against both bookmakers.

That moved MoSSBODS to a 9 from 18 (50% ) record against both bookmakers, and MoSHBODS to a 10 from 18 (56%) record against both bookmakers.