2023 - Round 3 : Normal Service Resumed

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According to the TAB Bookmaker, no game this week is expected to be won by more than 3 goals, and five of them are expected to won by less than 2 goals.

Five home teams and four away teams are currently favourites, which is exactly the same mix as we saw in the opening markets in Round 1 and in Round 2.

The overall average expected margin is just 11.3 points per game, which is the lowest for a Round 3 on record and over a goal less than the average for the Round.

That figure drives the all-Season average down to just 11 points per game, which is a full point per game below last year’s average through Round 3, and is also a record across the period we are looking at.

Anyway, on to the tips …

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

There’s considerably more contrarianism this week, with Consult The Ladder and Home Sweet Home joined by RSMP_Simple and the MoS twins in providing it. The Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn have accumulated the bulk of it between them.

(NB: An earlier version of this table had incorrect forecasts for Consult The Ladder. Thanks to Phill for pointing this out - TC)

Amongst the Margin Predictors, we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in only two games, including 24 points in the Western Bulldogs v Brisbane Lions game, and 13 points in the Hawthorn v North Melbourne game. In every other game the differences are in about the 5 to 9-point range.

MoSSBODS_Marg and Bookie_3 are the most extreme Predictors in four of the nine games, and RSMP_Weighted and ENS_Linear in three.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are only two games with double-digit percentage point ranges in the probability estimates, the same two games where we have double-digit ranges for the margin forecasts.

MoSSBODS_Marg has the most extreme probability estimates in five games, and Bookie_RE and MoSHBODS_Marg in four.

WAGERS

Any concerns that Investors might have had that the MoS twins would never bet again have been firmly rebutted this week, with MoSHBODS finding four head-to-head bets and MoSSBODS two line bets to their liking.

The four head-to-head wagers total just under 5% of the Head-to-Head Fund, and the two line wagers almost 6.5% of the Line Fund, thanks to an eye-watering 4.7% wager on the Dogs +14.5.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

All six bets are on underdogs and, in aggregate, represent almost 6% of the original Combined Portfolio, as can be seen from the Ready Reckoner below.

What can also be seen is that the Western Bulldogs hold the keys to happiness and despair this weekend, with the difference between a Dogs’ win and a loss by 15 points or more equal to 6.7% of the original Combined Portfolio. Should the Dogs lose by 15 points or more, the remaining bets are insufficient to make up for the loss that the Dogs’ game would represent.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.