2023 - Round 21 : Still Hard to Call

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Over half of Round 21 contests involved teams that are five spots or less distant on the competion ladder. We have:

  • Two games where the teams are separated by two ladder positions and where the lines are 18.5 points

  • Three games where the teams are separated by between three and five ladder positions and where the lines range from 4.5 to 50.5 points

  • One game where the teams are separated by seven ladder positions and where the line is 8.5 points

  • Three games where the teams are separated by between 12 and 15 ladder positions and where the lines range from 17.5 to 40.5 points

On average, the opposing teams are separated by 7 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.77.

That relatively high average ladder separation has translated into high average handicaps, the overall average coming in at 22.7 points per game, which is up by over 8-and-a-half points on the Round 20 average, but down by about half-a-point on the all-time average for Round 21s. It moves the all-Season average to 18.3 points per game.

Next, the tips.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

This week’s underdog support comes from Home Sweet Home in four games, Consult The Ladder in two games, and the MoS twins in just a single game (Sydney, again!).

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in five games, including 19 points in the Hawks v Pies, and Roos v Dees games, 16 points in the Giants v Swans game, 15 points in the Dons v Eagles game, and 13 points in the Cats v Power game.

Bookie_9 has Extreme Predictor status in four games this week, and Bookie_3 and the MoS twins in three games each.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are only three games with double-digit percentage point forecast ranges: Giants v Swans (16% points), Cats v Power (15% points), and Hawks v Pies (11% points).

MoSHBODS_Prob and Bookie_OE have Extreme Predictor status in five games, and MoSSBODS_Prob in four.

WAGERS

Investors will have three head-to-head wagers in Round 20 representing 4.5% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and three line wagers representing just over 4% of the original Line Fund..

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The week’s Ready Reckoner shows that Geelong, narrowly, carries the greatest risk in terms of the difference between the best and worst possible outcomes. For them the difference is a 2.6c swing, while for Sydney it is 2.5c, and for Hawthorn 2.4c. After them comes only Fremantle with 0.9c.

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by 4.3c, while a worst case set would snip 4.1c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.