2023 - Round 21 : Overs/Unders

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The MoS twins are forecasting generally lower scoring than are the bookmakers this week, but are predicting higher scores in some games and lower scores in others.

As highests and lowests, we have:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Essendon v West Coast

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins and TAB: St Kilda v Carlton (TAB also Geelong v Port Adelaide)

  • Sportsbet: Geelong v Port Adelaide

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Essendon

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoS twins: North Melbourne

  • Bookmakers: West Coast

WAGERS

Investors have three wagers this week, all unders, and would also have had another overs bet but for the forecast in the Giants v Swans game.

The estimated overlays for the games where we’ve wagers are between about 12 and 15 points.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours were again shared for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) this week:

  • Game Margins: MoSHBODS

  • Home Team Scores: MoSSBODS

  • Away Team Scores: TAB

  • Game Totals: TAB

The season-long round win tallies are now

  • Game Margins: TAB (6.5 incl 3 ties) / MoSSBODS (5) / Sportsbet (4.5 incl 3 ties) / MoSHBODS (4)

  • Home Team Scores: Sportsbet (5.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSHBODS (5) / MoSSBODS (5) / TAB (4.5 incl 1 tie)

  • Away Team Scores: TAB (6.5 incl 1 tie) / Sportsbet (5.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSHBODS (5) / MoSSBODS (3)

  • Game Totals: TAB (6.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSSBODS (6) / MoSHBODS (5) / Sportsbet (2.5 incl 1 tie)

The round results left three of the four titles in the same hands as last week, and saw the TAB take the lead from MoSSBODS on Game Totals. The leads across all four metrics are now as follows:

Game Margins: TAB 68 points ahead of Sportsbet and 70 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Home Team Scores: TAB 11 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 29 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Away Team Scores: TAB 28 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 30 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Game Totals: TAB 7 points ahead of Sportsbet and 16 points ahead of MoSSBODS

MoSSBODS had three wagers last week, two unders that resulted in one win and one loss, and one over that resulted in a win.

It ended still at 15 and 14 with the TAB, and at 16 and 10 with Sportsbet, for an overall 31 and 24 record, comprising a 54% win rate on overs and a 57% win rate on unders.

Across all games, MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS landed 3 from 9 against both bookmakers.

That moved MoSSBODS to an 86 from 171 (50%) record against the TAB, and an 84 from 171 (49% ) record against Sportsbet, and moved MoSHBODS to an 88 from 171 (52%) record against the TAB, and an 87 from 171 (51%) record against Sportsbet.

ACCURACY by estimated overlay

Here’s an update on the relationship between estimated overlays and outcomes.

For background and information about how to read this chart, see this blog.