2023 - Round 19 : The Final Half-Dozen

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Six of this week’s games pit teams no more than five ladder positions apart. We have:

  • Three games where the teams are separated by one ladder position and where the lines are between 1.5 and 2.5 points

  • One game where the teams are separated by two ladder positions and where the line is 13.5

  • Two games where the teams are separated by four or five ladder positions and where the lines are 12.5 and 18.5 points

  • Two games where the teams are separated by eight ladder positions and where the lines are 18.5 and 65.5 points

  • One game where the teams are separated by 11 ladder positions and where the line is 28.5

On average, the opposing teams are separated by just 4.6 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.75.

The overall average bookmaker expected margin is 18.2 points per game, which is up just slightly on the Round 18 average, and down by 1.5 points on the all-time average for Round 19s. It leaves the all-Season average at 18.3 points per game.

Next, the tips.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

This week’s underdog support comes from Home Sweet Home in two games, MoSSBODS_Marg in three games, MoSHBODS_Marg in two games, and Consult The Ladder, ENS_Linear, and the RSMP twins in one game each.

In particular, there’s strong underdog support for the Swans and, to a lesser extent, the Power.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in seven games, including 25 points in the Blues v Eagles game, 19 points in the Power v Pies game, 17 points in the Giants v Suns game, and 13 points in the Tigers v Hawks, Dockers v Swans, and Saints v Roos games.

MoSSBODS_Marg and Bookie_9 have Extreme Predictor status in five games each.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are four games with double-digit percentage point forecast ranges: Power v Pies (19% points), Giants v Suns (18% points), Dockers v Swans (13% points), and Dons v Dogs (10% points).

MoSSBODS_Prob has Extreme Predictor status in six games, Bookie_LPSO in five, and Bookie_OE in four.

WAGERS

Investors will have one head-to-head wagers in Round 19 representing 2% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and three line wagers ranging in size from about 1% to 3% of the original Line Fund..

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

This week, a Ready Reckoner that shows Port Adelaide carries by far the greatest risk in terms of the difference between the best and worst possible outcomes, which for them is a 5c swing. Next comes Gold Coast (3.1c), and then Sydney (1.3c).

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by 4.5c, while a worst case set would snip almost 5c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.