2023 - Round 19 : Overs/Unders

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On balance, the MoS twins are forecasting slightly lower Totals than are the bookmakers this week, with the notable exception of the (likely to be rain-affected) Port Adelaide v Collingwood game..

As highests and lowests, we have:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS and Sportsbet: Carlton v West Coast

  • MoSHBODS and TAB: Brisbane Lions v Geelong (also Carlton v West Coast for the TAB)

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins and TAB: St Kilda v North Melbourne

  • Sportsbet: Richmond v Hawthorn

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Carlton

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: West Coast

WAGERS

Investors have fourwagers this week, all unders, and would also have had a lone overs bet but for the forecast in the Power v Pies game.

The estimated overlays for the games where we’ve wagers are between about 6.5 and 14 points.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

The bookmakers took honours across the Board for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) this week:

  • Game Margins: TAB

  • Home Team Scores: TAB

  • Away Team Scores: Sportsbet

  • Game Totals: TAB and Sportsbet (tied)

The season-long round win tallies are now

  • Game Margins: TAB (6 incl 2 ties) / MoSSBODS (5) / Sportsbet (4 incl 2 ties) / MoSHBODS (3)

  • Home Team Scores: Sportsbet (5.5 incl 1 tie) / TAB (4.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSSBODS (4) / MoSHBODS (4)

  • Away Team Scores: Sportsbet (5.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSHBODS (5) / TAB (4.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSSBODS (3)

  • Game Totals: TAB (5.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSHBODS (5) / MoSSBODS (5) / Sportsbet (2.5 incl 1 tie)

The round results left all four titles in the same hands as last week. The leads across all four metrics are now as follows:

Game Margins: TAB 67 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 68 points ahead of Sportsbet

Home Team Scores: TAB 12 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 41 points ahead of MoSHBODS and MoSSBODS

Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS 4 points ahead of MoSSBODS, and 6 points ahead of the TAB

Game Totals: MoSSBODS 5 points ahead of the TAB and 6 points ahead of Sportsbet

MoSSBODS had three wagers last week, all of them unders, and won one and lost two.

A lone loss left it at 15 and 14 with the TAB, and one win and one loss left it at 11 and 8 with Sportsbet, for an overall 26 and 22 record, comprising a 50% win rate on overs and a 56% win rate on unders.

Across all games, MoSSBODS landed 3 from 9 against both bookmakers, while MoSHBODS landed 1 from 9 against both.

That moved MoSSBODS to a 78 from 153 (51%) record against the TAB, and a 76 from 153 (50% ) record against Sportsbet, and moved MoSHBODS to an 81 from 153 (53%) record against the TAB, and an 80 from 153 (52%) record against Sportsbet.

ACCURACY by estimated overlay

Here’s an update on the relationship between estimated overlays and outcomes.

For background and information about how to read this chart, see this blog.

One thing that is interesting about this table is that it shows 54% or higher success rates for large under forecasts both by MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS, and against the TAB and Sportsbet. An earlier version of the Overs/Unders Fund only bet unders and it would seem that a return to that philosophy might be worth considering.