2023 - Round 18 : Overs/Unders

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For the most part, there’s broad agreement across the forecasters this week, though not so much that there’s no potential value in any of the games, according to MoSSBODS.

As highests and lowests, we have:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Adelaide v GWS (also West Coast v Richmond for the TAB)

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: Gold Coast v St Kilda

  • Bookmakers: Collingwood v Fremantle

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Richmond

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Fremantle

WAGERS

Investors have three wagers this week, all unders.

The estimated overlays for the games where we’ve wagers are between about 6 and 11 points.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

The MoS twins fared far better this week in terms of honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs):

  • Game Margins: Sportbet

  • Home Team Scores: MoSSBODS

  • Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS

  • Game Totals: MoSSBODS

The season-long round win tallies are now

  • Game Margins: TAB (5 incl 2 ties) / MoSSBODS (5) / Sportsbet (4 incl 2 ties) / MoSHBODS (3)

  • Home Team Scores: Sportsbet (5.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSSBODS (4) / MoSHBODS (4) / TAB (3.5 incl 1 tie)

  • Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS (5) / Sportsbet (4.5 incl 1 tie) / TAB (4.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSSBODS (3)

  • Game Totals: TAB (5) / MoSHBODS (5) / MoSSBODS (5) / Sportsbet (2)

The round results left three of the four titles in the same hands as last week, with MoSSBODS snatching the Game Totals lead from the TAB. The leads across all four metrics are now as follows:

Game Margins: TAB 30 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 64 points ahead of Sportsbet

Home Team Scores: TAB 10 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 27 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS 4 points ahead of MoSSBODS, and 7 points ahead of the TAB

Game Totals: MoSSBODS 4 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 13 points ahead of the TAB

MoSSBODS had five wagers last week, all of them unders, and all of them collects.

Three collects left it at 15 and 13 with the TAB, and two more collects at 10 and 7 with Sportsbet, for an overall 25 and 20 record, comprising a 50% win rate on overs and a 58% win rate on unders.

Across all games, MoSSBODS landed 8 from 9 against both bookmakers, while MoSHBODS landed 8 from 9 against the TAB, and 7 from 9 against Sportsbet.

That moved MoSSBODS to a 75 from 144 (52%) record against the TAB, and a 73 from 144 (51% ) record against Sportsbet, and moved MoSHBODS to an 80 from 144 (56%) record against the TAB, and a 79 from 144 (55%) record against Sportsbet.

Just when I was starting to be more firmly convinced that there’d be no Overs/Unders Fund in 2024 …

ACCURACY by estimated overlay

Here’s an update on the relationship between estimated overlays and outcomes.

For background and information about how to read this chart, see this blog.