2023 - Round 18 : Consequential

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Four of this week’s games pit teams no more than three ladder positions apart. We have:

  • Three games where the teams are separated by one ladder position and where the lines are between 4.5 and 16.5 points

  • One game where the teams are separated by three ladder positions and where the line is 20.5

  • Four games where the teams are separated by between six and nine ladder positions and where the lines are between 5.5 and 40.5 points

  • One game where the teams are separated by 13 ladder positions and where the line is 38.5

On average, the opposing teams are separated by 5.4 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.61.

The overall average bookmaker expected margin is 17.5 points per game, which is down by over eight points on the Round 17 average, and by over 5 points on the all-time average for Round 18s. It leaves the all-Season average at 18.3 points per game.

To the tips …

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

This week’s underdog support comes from Home Sweet Home in three games, Consult The Ladder in four more, and MoSHBODS_Marg in one game.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in four games, including 22 points in the Eagles v Tigers game, 18 points in the Pies v Dockers, 14 points in the Swans v Dogs game, and 11 points in the Blues v Power game.

MoSSBODS_Marg and MoSHBODS_Marg have Extreme Predictor status in four games, and Bookie_3 and RSMP_Simple in three.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are only two games with double-digit percentage point forecast ranges: Swans v Dogs (13% points) and Blues v Power (11% points).

MoSSBODS_Marg has Extreme Predictor status in six games, and Bookie_OE in five.

WAGERS

Investors will have three head-to-head wagers in Round 18, ranging in size from 1.5% to 4.5% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and two line wagers both sized around 1% of the original Line Fund..

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

This week, a Ready Reckoner that shows Adelaide carries the greatest risk in terms of the difference between the best and worst possible outcomes. For them it is a 2c swing. Next comes Sydney (1.4c), Fremantle (1.3c), Richmond (1.3c), and then Carlton (1.1c).

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by 3c, while a worst case set would lop almost 4c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.