2022 - Team Ratings After Round 21

/

Geelong retained Top spot on both Rating Systems this week as the two teams below them dropped Rating points. On MoSHBODS that was enough to see Sydney take 2nd, relegating Melbourne to 3rd while on MoSSBOS the declines were roughly equally-sized, allowing Melbourne to retain 2nd.

In total, there were 11 moves on MoSSBODS and nine on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing about the ranking of the 1st, 6th, and 9th through 18th teams. There is now no team where they differ in their rankings by more than a single place.

Ten teams are rated as above-average on MoSSBODS, and just nine now on MoSHBODS.

There were five multiple-spot movers on MoSSBODS this week, including Richmond up 4 spots, Fremantle up 2 spots, Western Bulldogs and Carlton down 2 spots, and Port Adelaide down 4 spots. There were also four multiple-spot movers on MoSHBODS, including Richmond up 3 spots, Fremantle up 2 spots, Western Bulldogs done 2 spots, and Port Adelaide down 4 spots.

The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings remains very high, and now stands at +0.996. The correlation on defence alone is +0.992 and on offence alone +0.989.

To provide some historical context to the teams’ current Ratings, the chart below shows the Ratings of selected teams from V/AFL history after 21 rounds of their respective seasons. Bear in mind that any season with fewer than 21 home-and-away rounds will have no teams in this chart.

Geelong, Sydney, and Melbourne are still the only teams rated higher at this point in the season than 50% of the teams in history that subsequently made the Grand Final.

The animation below maps the path that each 2022 team has followed to reach its current Rating.

Or, if you prefer a static view of the teams’ combined MoSSBODS Ratings, here’s an updated version of that chart

And here’s the updated MoSHBODS version.

We’re still seeing in both of these charts how the teams are broadly split into a Top 3, a Middle 13, and a Bottom 2, with the Middle 13 maybe now split into eight teams and five teams.

On the Component Ratings, on offence, we find MoSSBODS now with a Top 3 of Swans, Lions, and Cats, and MoSHBODS with Swans, Cats, and Lions. On defence, we find both still with a Top 3 of Cats, Dees, and Dockers. Probably unsurprising given how far we are into the season, those Top 3s on offence include the three teams that have scored most points this season (albeit Geelong equally with Richmond, who are 4th under both Systems), and the Top3s on defence include the three teams that have conceded fewest points this season.

On MoSSBODS, only 4 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (down 1), 6 are rated negatively on both (up 1), two are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 6 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change). The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at just +0.59.

And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked eight teams this week, and none by more than two spots, elevating Richmond, Fremantle, Collingwood, and Gold Coast, and demoting Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide, Carlton and Essendon.

As we’ll see in a moment, all three Systems are now in extraordinary agreement about the ranking of all 18 teams.

In terms of groupings, we now have, according to MARS, roughly:

  • Geelong, Melbourne, Sydney, and Brisbane Lions (1,027 to 1,036)

  • Richmond, Western Bulldogs, Fremantle, and Port Adelaide (1,008 to 1,015)

  • Collingwood, Carlton, St Kilda, Gold Coast, and Essendon (992 to 1,003)

  • Hawthorn, GWS, and Adelaide (979 to 988)

  • West Coast and North Melbourne (940 to 952)

Ten teams are rated as better-than-average by MARS, with St Kilda rated just under than mark at 997.9.

The Rating gap between first and last currently stands at about 96 Rating Points, which is up about 3 Rating Points on last week.

Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we still find relatively large differences for Collingwood where the team’s ladder position is well above its System Ranking, and for Western Bulldogs where the team’s ladder position is well below its System Rankings.

MARS currently has the outright most-extreme ranking for eight of the teams, MoSSBODS for two, and MoSHBODS for four.

MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS agree about the ranking of 12 teams, MoSHBODS and MARS about six teams, and MoSSBODS and MARS about nine teams.

The magnitude of the differences are now all very small.

In fact, if we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that Adelaide, Collingwood, and Port Adelaide (2 spots) have the widest range of rankings, and that the range is just one spot or less for the remaining 15 teams.

The three Systems now have the same ranking for Geelong, North Melbourne, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs, and West Coast.