2022 - Round 22 : Penultimate

/

This week includes seven games where the teams are separated on the competition ladder by between 1 and 6 places (in five of which the difference is 4 places or fewer), one where they are separated by exactly 10 places, and one where they are separated by exactly 11 places.

That’s translated into a set of expected margins that includes six sized at under three-and-a-half goals, and three more size at between four-and-a-half and five-and-a-half goals.

The overall average expected margin is 19.9 points per game, which is well below average by general Round 22 standards. It takes the all-season average expected margin to 18 points per game.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Only Home Sweet Home, Consult The Ladder, the RSMP twins, and MoSHBODS_Marg are offering contrarian tips this week, with the majority of those coming for Port Adelaide in their clash against Essendon.

The Margin Predictors have double-digit forecast ranges in five games again this week, the largest being 19 points in the Crows v Roos game, followed by 15 points in the Dockers v Eagles game.

Altogether, Bookie_9 and MoSHBODS_Marg have the most extreme margin forecasts in four games, and RSMP_Weighted in three games.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, the largest range of probability estimates is just 11% points for the Saints v Lions, and Crows v Roos games.

Altogether, Bookie_OE and MoSHBODS_Prob have the most extreme probability estimates in five games, and Bookie_LPSO in four.

WAGERS

There are just two head-to-head bets this week, sized at 1.4% and 4.2% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and one line bet sized at 3% of the original Line Fund. That bet is on Adelaide giving 30.5 points start and was placed during a period of extreme volatility in this market with the TAB constantly closing its market as it adjusted the line from -30.5 to -28.5 to -27.5 and then to -31.5. I attempted to get on at -27.5, but the bet was rejected. In the end, I got on at Sportsbet.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The wagers carry the following risks and rewards:

  • St Kilda win: 1.4 x 1.42 x 30% = +0.6c

  • Draw: 1.4 x (2.42/2-1) x 30% = +0.1c

  • Otherwise: -1.4 x 30% = -0.4c

  • Adelaide win by 31 points or more: 3 x 0.9 x 65% = +1.8c

  • Otherwise: -3 x 65% = -2c

  • Sydney win: 4.2 x 0.48 x 30% = +0.6c

  • Draw: 4.2 x (1.48/2-1) x 30% = -0.3c

  • Otherwise: -4.2 x 30% = -1.3c

So, best case is a gain of about 3c, and worst case a loss of about 3.7c, with Adelaide having a lot to say about which of those outcomes is to be Investors’ fate.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.