2022 - Round 22 : Overs/Unders

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There are some larger-than-usual differences of opinion between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS this week, with the average absolute difference in their Totals forecasts coming in at 4.7 points per game, which is comfortably the highest this season, breaking the previous high of 4.0 points per game from Round 20.

Between the two, MoSSBODS’ forecasts are more similar to the bookmakers’, both at the individual game level and at the level of the overall average expected Totals.

The MoS twins are, however, in strong agreement about the likely highest- and lowest-scoring games and teams:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: Richmond v Hawthorn

  • TAB and Sportsbet: St Kilda v Brisbane Lions (tied with Western Bulldogs v GWS for the TAB, and with Richmond v Hawthorn for Sportsbet)

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: Fremantle v West Coast

  • TAB and Sportsbet: Gold Coast v Geelong

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: Adelaide

  • TAB and Sportsbet: Western Bulldogs

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: West Coast

WAGERS

MoSSBODS has found value in just one unders bet this week, opting out of overs wagering in two other games based on the weather forecasts for the Gold Coast and Adelaide.

The estimated overlay in the game Investors have wagered on is, according to MoSSBODS, 11 points (but, only 2 points according to MoSHBODS).

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Round 21 was a good one for MoSHBODS and saw it pick up honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for Game Margins, Away Team Scores, and Game Totals, leaving Sportsbet to register best MAE for Home Team Scores.

That left MoSSBODS still with the season-long best MAE for Game Margins, MoSHBODS still with the season-long best MAE for Home Team Scores and now also for Game Totals, and the TAB with now only the season-long best MAE for Away Team Scores.

The leads are as follows:

Game Margins: MoSSBODS 34.2 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS 22.1 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Away Team Scores: TAB 14.4 points ahead of Sportsbet (and 73.6 points ahead of MoSSBODS)

Game Totals: MoSHBODS 6.1 points ahead of the TAB (and 19,9 ahead of Sportsbet, and 24.3 ahead of MoSSBODS)

MoSSBODS had two wagers last week, both with the TAB and both unders. It landed 1 from 2 to take it to 25 and 15 with the TAB for the season. It remains at 8 and 4 with Sportsbet.

Across all games, MoSSBODS recorded a 4 from 9 result against the TAB, moving it to 102 from 180 (57%) for the season, and also a 4 from 9 result against Sportsbet, moving it to 99 from 180 (55%) for the season.

MoSHBODS recorded a 6 from 9 result against the TAB, moving it to 103 from 180 (57%) for the season against them, and also a 6 from 9 result against Sportsbet, moving it to 97 from 180 (54%) for the season against them.