2022 - Team Ratings After Round 16

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Melbourne, in the end, did just enough in their 29-points and 9 scoring shots victory over Adelaide to nudge their ratings a little higher and retain top spot on both MoS Systems this week.

Geelong now sits directly behind them on both Systems, with Sydney and the Western Bulldogs filling 3rd and 4th in a different order. Sydney, by virtue of recording six more scoring shots than Essendon, actually gained rating points on MoSSBODS this week despite losing on the scoreboard, while on MoSHBODS, which includes an element of scoring shot conversion, the Swans suffered a slight decline.

Overall, nine teams moved places on MoSSBODS this week, and six did the same on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing about the ranking of the 1st, 2nd, 7th, 9th, 12th, 14th, 17th and 18th teams. There are only two teams, however, where they differ in their rankings by more than two places: Richmond and GWS.

Eleven teams are now rated as above-average on MoSSBODS, and 12 on MoSHBODS,.

Altogether, there were three multiple-spot movers on MoSSBODS, including Brisbane Lions and Carlton both up 2 spots, and Richmond, down 4 spots. There were just two multiple-spot movers on MoSHBODS, including Brisbane Lions, up 3 spots, and Richmond, down 3 spots.

The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings remains very high, and now stands at +0.9901. The correlation on defence alone is +0.9861 and on offence alone +0.988.

To provide some historical context to the teams’ current Ratings, the chart below shows the Ratings of selected teams from V/AFL history after 16 rounds of their respective seasons.

Melbourne and Geelong are the only teams rated higher at this point in the season than 50% of the teams in history that subsequently made the Grand Final, while North Melbourne has the lowest-ever offensive rating and one pf the lowest-ever combined ratings.

The animation below maps the path that each 2022 team has followed to reach its current Rating.

On the Component Ratings, on offence, we find MoSSBODS now with a Top 3 of Dogs, Dees, and Cats, and MoSHBODS still with a Top 3 of Dogs, Lions, and Tigers. On defence we find both Systems with a Top 3 of Dees, Cats, and Dockers.

On MoSSBODS, 8 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (up 1), 6 are rated negatively on both (no change), one is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (up 1), and 3 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change). The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.73.

And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked only four teams this week, swapping Brisbane Lions and Geelong in 9th and 10th, and St Kilda and Carlton in 10th and 11th.

MARS continues to have its own thoughts compared to the MoS twins about a number of teams, most notably Brisbane Lions (2nd vs 5th/6th), Collingwood (11th vs 5th/6th), and Port Adelaide (7th vs 10th/11th).

In terms of groupings, we now have, according to MARS roughly:

  • Melbourne

  • Brisbane Lions, Geelong

  • Western Bulldogs, Sydney, and Richmond

  • Port Adelaide and Fremantle

  • St Kilda, Carlton, Collingwood, and Gold Coast

  • GWS

  • Essendon

  • Hawthorn

  • Adelaide

  • West Coast

  • North Melbourne

Twelve teams are still rated as better-than-average by MARS.

The Rating gap between first and last currently stands at about 92 Rating Points, which is up about 4 Rating Points on last week..

Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we still find relatively large differences for a few teams, the largest being for Carlton, where the team’s ladder positions is well above its System Ranking, and for Western Bulldogs (and, to a lesser extent, Sydney), where the team’s ladder position is well below its System Rankings.

MARS currently has the outright most-extreme ranking for 10 of the teams, MoSSBODS for 8, and MoSHBODS for 3.

MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS agree about the ranking of eight teams, MoSHBODS and MARS about six teams, and MoSSBODS and MARS about only four teams.

If we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that Collingwood (6 spots) has the widest range of rankings, but that the range is just two spots or less for 11 teams.

The three Systems have the same ranking for North Melbourne, Melbourne, and West Coast.