2022 - Round 26 : Very Brave, Minister

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Week 3 of the Finals sees Geelong, the team from 1st on the ladder, meet Brisbane Lions from 6th, and Sydney, from 2nd, meet Collingwood from 4th.

As you can see from the table at right, both of those clashes have tended to go better for the higher-ranked teams. In fact, a team from 1st is yet to lose to a team from 6th, and a team from 3rd has won over three-quarters of their encounters with teams from 4th.

That success is broadly reflected in the current markets where we find the Cats as about 3-and-a-half-goal favourites and the Swans as about 3-goal favourites.

Looking briefly back at last week, the two tables below provide updated statistics about the Week 2 and the all-week performance of teams from each ladder position.

On then to this weeks’ forecasts.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Also consistent with the historical superiority of home teams in preliminary-finals is the fact that there are, again, no contrarian head-to-head tips this week, which means that MoSHBODS_Marg’s one tip lead is safe for another week.

The Margin Predictors are all also tipping home team wins, but MoSHBODS_Marg is once again doing it most emphatically if only slightly more enthusiastically than MoSSBODS_Marg.

MoSHBODS_Marg currently sits in third on the Leaderboard and trails MoSSBODS_Marg in first by about 38 points. At best, MoSHBODS_Marg will shave 8 points off that gap this weekend.

The MoS twins are also, once again, the most bullish about the home teams’ chances amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, although not so much that their positions atop that Leaderboard are at risk.

Such are the gaps between the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, and such are their probability estimates, that no set of results this week will change their ordering.

Altogether, it’s looking pretty good for the MoS trio this season as they are guaranteed to fill the Top 2 spots on the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard (and will probably tie for 3rd as well), and virtually guaranteed to fill the Top 3 spots on the Margin Predictor and Head-to-Head Probability Predictor Leaderboards as well.

WAGERS

Unfazed by recent losses, including those in each of the first two weeks of the Finals, the MoS twins have made, between them, the maximum number of wagers possible.

(Please click on the image to access a larger version.)

The risk and reward calculations for these wagers are as follows:

  • Geelong wins by 23 points or more: 6.7% x 0.3 x 30% + 1.8% x 0.9 x 65% = +1.7c

  • Geelong wins by 1 to 22 points: 6.7% x 0.3 x 30% - 1.8% x 65% = -0.6c

  • Geelong loses: -5.3% x 30% - 3% x 65% = -3.2c

  • Sydney wins by 18 points or more: 5% x 0.4 x 30% + 1.6% x 0.9 x 65% = +1.5c

  • Sydney wins by 1 to 17 points: 5% x 0.4 x 30% - 1.6% x 65% = -0.4c

  • Sydney loses: -5% x 30% - 1.6% x 65% = -2.5c

In aggregate, the best case is a gain of just over 3c, and the worst case a loss of just under 6c.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.