2022 - Team Ratings After Round 25
/MoSSBODS made no changes to its Top 6 this week, but it elevated the two winning teams, Collingwood and Brisbane Lions, above Carlton. MoSHBODS dropped Melbourne to 4th, behind Richmond, and moved Brisbane Lions up three spots, dropping Fremantle down two spots and Collingwood down one (despite gaining Rating Points) at the same time.
Ten teams are still rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and the same number are rated as above-average on MoSHBODS.
The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.994. The correlation on defence alone is +0.990 and on offence alone +0.994.
The animation below maps the path that each 2022 team has followed to reach its current Rating.
Or, if you prefer a static view of the teams’ combined MoSSBODS Ratings, here’s an updated version of that chart
And here’s the updated MoSHBODS version.
On the Component Ratings, on offence, we find both Systems still with a Top 3 of Tigers, Cats, and Swans, while on defence, we find MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Cats, Swans, and Dees, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Cats, Swans, and Dockers.
On MoSSBODS, 8 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (no change), 6 are rated negatively on both (no change), none is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 4 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change). The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.66, which is again down a little compared to last week.
And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked four teams this week, swapping Sydney into 2nd at the expense of Melbourne, and the Brisbane Lions into 4th at the expense of Richmond.
Ten teams are rated as better-than-average by MARS, with St Kilda rated just under than mark at 997.
The Rating gap between first and last currently stands at just under 106 Rating Points, which is the same as last week.
If you’ve wondered about how MARS might be used practically, a simple model that forecast the game margin as 80% of the difference between the teams’ MARS Ratings plus a fixed 6 points for the designated home team would have yielded a 24.53 MAE and 70% accuracy this season, which is almost as good as the results from using the early bookmaker markets. If we formed probability estimates from that margin using the equation 1/(1+exp(-0.06 x Expected Margin)), we’d have a mean LPS of 0.191 bits per game, which is better than the bookmakers but not quite as good as the MoS trio.
MARS currently has the outright most-extreme ranking for nine of the teams, MoSSBODS for three, and MoSHBODS for three as well.
MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS agree about the ranking of 12 teams, MoSHBODS and MARS about 7 teams, and MoSSBODS and MARS about 9 teams.
If we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that Brisbane Lions (4 spots) has the widest range of rankings, and that the range is just two spots or less for the remaining 17 teams.
The three Systems now have the same ranking for Geelong, Gold Coast, GWS, North Melbourne, St Kilda, Sydney, and West Coast.
