Half of this week’s three games could conceivably go down to the final kick (spoiler: they won’t) as, according to my competition ladder, which i ordered firstly be competition points per game played, sees 4th play 9th, 7th play 12th, and 10th play 13th (but, also, 6th play 16th, 5th play 17th, and 11th play 14th)

Altogether, the average expected margin is just over 3-goals per game, which is a little high in the context of Round 14s from recent history, being the highest average for a Round 14 since 2018, although lower than every Round 14 average prior to that in our sample.

It keeps the all-season average expected margin at 18.4 points per game, which, if maintained, would be the highest average since 2018.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

There is contrarianism amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters in four of the six contests this week, and in only one case is it solely due to Home Sweet Home.

We have Home Sweet Home, Consult The Ladder and MoSHBODS_Marg in on the lark in two games, and the RSMP twins, ENS_Linear and MoSSBODS_Margin joining in on one game. That could well break the impasse at the top of the Leaderboard.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we again have four games registering double-digit forecast ranges, including 22 points in the St Kilda v Essendon game, and 21 points in the West Coast v Geelong game.

Altogether, ENS_Linear and MoSSBODS_Marg have the most extreme margin forecast in three games, and Bookie_9 and RSMP_Simple in two each.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, the largest range of probability estimates is 15% points for the St Kilda v Essendon game, followed by 12% points for GWS v Western Bulldogs game.

Altogether, MoSSBODS_Prob and Bookie_LPSO have the most extreme probability estimates in four games, and Bookie_OE in two.

WAGERS

The MoS models again see little that interests them this week, opting between them for just a pair of line bets - a smallish one on the Dogs with a smallish start, and a larger one on the Dons with a larger start.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

We have:

• Essendon lose by 27 points or less / otherwise: +1.3c / -1.4c

• Western Bulldogs lose by 2 points or less / otherwise: +0.6c / -0.7c

So, best case, a 1.9c gain, and worst case a 2.1c loss.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.