2022 - Round 14 : Overs/Unders

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It’s another week of broad similarity between the MoS twins’ and the bookmakers’ average expected margins, but with some significant differences in the opinions about individual games, partly as a consequence of the expected weather for some of them.

There’s disagreement this week about which will be the highest- and lowest-scoring games, but complete agreement about which will be the highest- and lowest-scoring teams.

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: Richmond v Carlton

  • TAB and Sportsbet: St Kilda v Essendon

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: Port Adelaide v Sydney

  • TAB and Sportsbet: West Coast v Geelong

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Geelong

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: West Coast

WAGERS

Three unders wagers this week, after weather forecasts again persuaded MoSSBODS to pass on the opportunity for overs wagers in two other games.

The estimated overlays for the wagers are all in the 6- to 8-point range.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Round 13 saw honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) spread across MoSSBODS and the two bookmakers. MoSSBODS had the low MAE for Game Totals, the TAB bookmaker for Game Margins and Away Team Scores, and Sportsbet for Home Team Scores.

That left MoSSBODS still with the season-long best MAE for Game Margins and Game Totals, MoSHBODS still with the season-long best MAE for Home Team Scores, and the TAB still with the season-long best MAE for Away Team Scores.

It’s interesting to note that, across the entire season, all four forecasters have tended to overestimate Home Team scores by about 1 to 1.5 points per game, and underestimate Away Team scores by about 1,5 to 2 points per game. They’ve also all tended to underestimate Game Totals by about 0.5 to 1 point per game.

MoSSBODS went 1 and 0 on its unders wagers with both the TAB and Sportsbet, moving it to an 18 and 7 record for the season with the TAB, and a 6 and 3 record with Sportsbet.

Across all games, MoSSBODS recorded a 4 from 6 result against the TAB, moving it to 62 from 111 (56%) for the season, and a 3 from 6 result against Sportsbet, moving it to 61 from 111 (55%) for the season.

MoSHBODS also recorded a 4 from 6 result against the TAB, moving it to 65 from 111 (59%) for the season against them, and a 3 from 6 result against Sportsbet, moving it to 60 from 111 (54%) for the season against them.