2022 - Team Ratings After Round 13
/We have new number ones on both Systems this week, as Geelong has edged past a falling Melbourne to take that prime position.
Overall, twelve teams moved places on MoSSBODS this week, and nine did the same on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing only about the ranking of the Top 3, 6th, and 11th through 14th. There’s only one team, however, where they differ in their rankings by more than two places: Collingwood, who MoSSBODS ranks 7th and MoSHBODS 10th.
The same twelve teams are rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and on MoSHBODS.
Altogether, there were four multiple-spot movers on MoSSBODS, including Collingwood up 5 spots, Brisbane Lions up 2 spots, St Kilda down 3 spots, and Carlton down 2 spots. There was only one multiple-spot mover on MoSHBODS, which was Collingwood up 2 spots into 10th.
The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings remains very high, and now stands at +0.9936. The correlation on defence alone is +0.988 and on offence alone +0.992.
To provide some historical context to the teams’ current Ratings, the chart below shows the Ratings of selected teams from V/AFL history after 12 rounds of their respective seasons.
Geelong and Melbourne remain the only teams rated higher at this point in the season than 50% of the teams in history that subsequently made the Grand Final, while West Coast and North Melbourne remain amongst the teams with the lowest-ever offensive ratings.
The animation below maps the path that each 2022 team has followed to reach its current Rating.
On the Component Ratings, on offence, we find MoSSBODS now with a Top 3 of Lions, Cats, and Dogs, and MoSHBODS with Lions, Dogs, and Tigers. On defence, we find both Systems still with a Top 3 of Dockers, Dees and Cats.
On MoSSBODS, 8 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (up 1), 6 are rated negatively on both (no change), none is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (down 1), and 4 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change). The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.74.
And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked only six teams this week, swapping Melbourne and Brisbane Lions in 1st and 2nd, St Kilda and Richmond in 6th and 7th, and Gold Coast and Collingwood in 11th and 12th.
MARS has the same Top 5 teams as the MoS twins, but in a completely different order.
In terms of groupings, we now have, roughly:
Brisbane Lions, Melbourne, and Geelong
Western Bulldogs and Sydney
Richmond, St Kilda, Fremantle, and Port Adelaide
Carlton and Collingwood
Gold Coast and GWS
Hawthorn and Essendon
Adelaide
West Coast and North Melbourne
Eleven teams are rated as better-than-average by MARS, with Gold Coast and GWS also Rated higher than 994.
The Rating gap between first and last currently stands at about 79.5 Rating Points, which is up by about 0.5 Rating Points compared to last week.
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder (which we do by competition points per game and then percentage), we still find relatively large differences for a few teams, the largest being for Carlton, where the team’s ladder positions is well above its System Ranking, and for Western Bulldogs (and, to a lesser extent, Geelong), where the teams’ ladder positions are well below their System Rankings.
MARS currently has the outright most-extreme ranking for 10 of the teams, while MoSSBODS has it for only four teams and MoSHBODS for six teams.
MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS now agree about the ranking of only eight teams, MoSHBODS and MARS about three teams, and MoSSBODS and MARS about eight teams.
If we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that Brisbane Lions, Collingwood, and Gold Coast (4 spots each) have the widest range of rankings, but that the range is just two spots or less for 12 teams.
The three Systems have the same ranking for GWS, Hawthorn, and Melbourne.
