2022 - Round 12 : Quieter Round

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We enter my least-favourite portion of the season, where essentially two rounds of football are played out over three weeks, just as the competition seemed to have reached an inflexion point.

The six games we have been offered include three that are expected to be won by 3-and-a-half goals or more, one that is expected to be won by about two goals, and just two that are expected to be won by about a goal or less.

Altogether that makes for an average expected margin of 20.5 points per game, which is a little high in the context of recent Round 12s, and especially so when compared to last year’s 11.8 points per game.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

The vast bulk of the week’s contrarian head-to-head tipping has come in the first and last games of the round, thanks to Home Sweet Home, ENS_Linear, and the MoS twins in the former, and Consult The Ladder and the RSMP twins in the latter.

So, there is some prospect of movement on the Leaderboard, but not much.

Turning next to the Margin Predictors, we find just two games with double-digit forecast ranges, Gold Coast v North Melbourme, and Fremantle v Brisbane Lions, although the Adelaide v West Coast game only just falls short.

Altogether, Bookie_9 and MoSSBODS_Marg have the most extreme margin forecasts in three games, and Bookie_3 in two.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, the largest range of probability estimates is only 8% points for the Gold Coast v North Melbourne game.

Altogether, MoSSBODS_Prob and Bookie_OE have the most extreme probability estimates in three games each, and the three other forecasters in two games each..

WAGERS

Just two bets this week, one head-to-head on the underdog Hawks, and one line on the even more underdog North Melbourne.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

We have:

  • North Melbourne lose by 45 or less / otherwise: +0.4c / -0.5c

  • Hawthorn win / draw / loss: +0.6c / +0.1c / -0.4c

So, best case, a 1c gain, and worst case a 0.9c loss.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.