2021 - Team Ratings After Round 21
/The Dees clung onto top spot on both Systems this week, despite dropping Rating Points, thanks in part to the Dogs doing the same thing. As well, Brisbane Lions slipped into 3rd spot on MoSSBODS, but remains in 4th on MoSHBODS though they now trail Geelong by only 0.3 points.
The two Systems now agree about the Top 2 and Bottom 10 teams, and a couple in between.
The correlation between MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ Combined Ratings now stands at +0.9977, while the Rating gap between 1st and 8th has narrowed slightly to 5.8 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS and to 19.7 Points on MoSHBODS. Nine teams are now rated as above-average on MoSSBODS - though St Kilda only just - and eight teams on MoSHBODS.
On the Component Ratings, on Offence MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS still have Top 3s of Dogs, Lions, and Dees (and now agree on the ranking of 16 of the 18 teams), while on Defence their shared Top 3s remain as Dees, Cats, and Dogs. MoSSBODS now has only five teams rated as above-average on offence, and 11 teams rated as above-average on defence, while MoSHBODS still has six teams rated as above-average on offence, and also 11 teams rated as above-average on defence
On MoSSBODS, 5 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (down 1), 7 are rated negatively on both (no change), none are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 6 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (up 1). The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.759, which is up again on last week’s number.
In the animation below, we can see the path that each team has taken to arrive at its current Rating.
And, in the chart below, we can see how the current crop of teams compares with the Premiers and Runners Up across V/AFL history at the same point in their respective home-and-away seasons. Bear in mind that we’ve lost any teams whose home-and-away season didn’t extend as far as 21 rounds.
We can see from this chart that the Dogs and the Dees remain the only teams with Combined Ratings that puts them above the median for all previous Grand Finalists at this point in their respective seasons.
Lastly, to MARS, where we find that the Cats’ lead has been cut to only just over 2 Rating Points, and that lead is over Brisbane Lions, who slipped into 2nd place this week.
The Dogs have been relegated to 3rd and are now about 4 Rating Points clear of the Dees.
The only move of more than a single spot this week was West Coast’s two spot slide into 10th.
MARS has now only seven teams rated as better-than-average, and with a sizeable gap between the seventh of them and the 999-Rated Essendon in 8th.
There are, though, four team rated between 997 and 999.
The Rating gap between first and last now stands at just under 63 Rating Points, and that between 1st and 8th at just under 32 Rating Points. 1st and 3rd are separated by less than 4.5 Rating Points, however, and 8th and 12th by only about seven Rating Points.
The biggest gaps in the Ratings are between 5th and 6th (11.3 Rating Points), 7th and 8th (8.2 Rating points), and between 16th and 17th (7.5 Rating Points).
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we find the highest difference for West Coast, where Rating System rankings are relatively lower than Ladder position, and for Collingwood, where Rating System rankings are relatively higher than Ladder position.
MARS continues to provide the most outlying rankings of the three Systems, it having the outright most extreme ranking for 13 teams now.
By comparison, MoSSBODS has the outright most extreme ranking for only one team, and MoSHBODS has it for only three.
MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS agree about the ranking of 14 teams, MoSSBODS and MARS about the ranking of five teams, and MoSHBODS and MARS also about the ranking of three teams.
Lastly, if we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that West Coast, still, has the widest range of rankings (now only four spots), while 15 teams have rankings that differ by no more than two spots, including Collingwood, Sydney, and Port Adelaide, about whom all three Systems agree on a ranking.
