2021 - Round 22 : Penultimate
/Very late to publish this week, but that’s all down to the incredibly last-minute finalisation of the venues, with the bulk of them confirmed yesterday and the final two only today (Thursday).
In the end, only one of the games is expected by the bookmakers to finish with a margin under three goals, and that game is the first of the round and between the Cats and the Giants. Across all nine games the average forecast margin is 24.6 points per game.
TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
One consequence of the generally large forecast margins is that contrarianism is quite rare this week amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters, and comes only from Home Sweet Home in five games, and Consult The Ladder and the MoS twins in one game each.
Amongst the Margin Predictors, we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in every game except the Cats v Giants, with the largest range coming in the final game of the round, the Fremantle v West Coast derby, where it is 22 points.
Bookie_3 and MoSSBODS_Marg are the most extreme Predictors in five of the nine games, and Bookie_9 in three.
Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are only two games with double-digit percentage point probability estimates, with the maximum of 22% points coming in the Fremantle v West Coast game thanks to the MoS twins’ comparatively generous probability estimate for the Dockers.
MoSSBODS_Prob has the most extreme probability estimates in seven games, Bookie_LPSO in five games, and Bookie_RE in three.
WAGERS
Round 22 will be a much quieter one for Investors, as MoSHBODS has found only two head-to-head bets it deems to be of value, and MoSSBODS has found only three line bets it feels the same way about. Together, the five bets represent only just over 3% of the original Combined Portfolio.
(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)
The line bets range in size from 0.4% to 3.5% of the original Line Fund, and the head-to-head bets from 0.6% to 1% of the original Head-to-Head Fund.
A best-case set of results would see the price of the Combined Portfolio increase by almost 4c and a worst-case set would see it decrease by about 3c.
To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.
Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.
