2021 - Round 8 : Overs/Unders
/UPDATE: WEDNESDAY 5:30PM
As expected, the TAB set 160.5 as the Total in the Lions v Dockers game. No surprise, no bet
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As I type this on Tuesday evening, there is no TAB Totals market for the Lions v Dockers game. Sportsbet have the Total at 160.5 but, as is tradition here, we won’t lock in the numbers for that game for the bookmakers until both have posted Totals.
I’ll publish an update here on this blog once that final TAB market is up.
In the meantime, what we have in the other eight games, on average, are slightly lower expected scores from the MoS twins compared to the bookmakers.
Looking at the highests and lowests (assuming we’ll wind up with 160.5 Totals in the missing game), we see the following:.
HIGHEST SCORING GAME
All: Western Bulldogs v Carlton
LOWEST SCORING GAME
MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: North Melbourne v Collingwood
TAB and Sportsbet: Richmond v Geelong
HIGHEST SCORING TEAM
All: Western Bulldogs
LOWEST SCORING TEAM
MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: North Melbourne
TAB and Sportsbet: Adelaide
WAGERS
Again, Investors face only two wagers this week, and are unlikely to find themselves with a third in the Lions v Dockers game unless the posted TAB Total is more than about a goal different from Sportsbet’s current Total.
Estimated overlays range from a barely acceptable 7 points in the Hawks v Eagles game, to 16.5 points in the Roos v Pies game.
PREVIOUS RESULTS
Round 7 saw MoSSBODS record the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for Game Margins and Game Totals, MoSHBODS do the same for Home Team Scores, and the TAB bookmaker take the honours for Away Team Scores.
Overall, that means that MoSSBODS now has the best season-long performance on Game Margins and Home Team Scores, the TAB on Away Team Scores, and the TAB and Sportsbet jointly on Game Totals,
MoSSBODS won its lone unders wager and lost its lone overs wager with the TAB last week, leaving it with a 13 and 16 record for the season with the TAB, and with a 3 and 5 record for the season with Sportsbet.
Despite recording lower MAEs for Game Totals, MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS finished on the wrong side of the Total in a majority of games, with MoSSBODS recording 4 from 9 results against both bookmakers, and MoSHBODS recording a 3 from 9 against the TAB, and a 4 from 9 against Sportsbet. Across all games, MoSSBODS is now 31 from 63 (49%) against the TAB, and 30 from 63 (48%) against Sportsbet, while MoSHBODS is 31 from 63 (49%) against the TAB and 32 from 63 (51%) against Sportsbet.
