2021 - Round 8 : On Delay

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After a 24-hour pause while we found out where the Dockers v Lions game would be played, we finish with an average expected margin of 18.4 points per game according to the TAB bookmaker, which is up by over 4 points on last weeks’ figure.

Only two games are expected to be decided by less than 2 goals, and five are expected to be decided by more than 3 goals.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Aided by seven home team favourites, which has kept Home Sweet Home a lot quieter, there’s considerably less contrarian tipping this week, with Home Sweet Home’s two contrarian tips matched only by one from Consult The Ladder, and one from RSMP_Weighted.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, we have double-digit ranges in five games: Suns v Saints, Roos v Pies, Power v Crows, Hawks v Eagles, and Lions v Dockers.

Of the 18 extreme forecasts, five of them belong to MoSHBODS_Marg, three to Bookie_3, Bookie_9, and ENS_Linear, and two to RSMP_Weighted.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, there are double-digit percentage point ranges only in the Suns v Saints (15% points), and Hawks v Eagles (13% points) games.

Bookie_OE has six of the extreme estimates, Bookie_LPSO and MoSHBODS_Prob have five.

WAGERS

In the end, Investors face only four wagers this week after a fifth, placed on Monday on Fremantle, was voided with the change of venue. Two head-to-head wagers represent just over 3% of the Head-to-Head Fund, and two line wagers just under 2% of the Line Fund. In aggregate, they represent 2% of the original Combined Portfolio.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The various scenarios for each wagered-upon game in terms of its possible effects on the value of the Combined Portfolio are then as follows:

  • Gold Coast win: 2.2% x 0.9 x 30% + 1.0% x 0.9 x 60% = +1.1%

  • Gold Coast draw: 2.2% x (1.9/2-1) x 30% - 1.0% x 60% = -0.6%

  • Gold Coast loss: -2.2% x 30% - 1.0% x 60% = -1.3%

  • Hawthorn win: 1.0% x 2.05 x 30% + 0.8% x 0.9 x 60% = +1.0%

  • Hawthorn draw: 1.0% x (3.05/2-1) x 30% + 0.8% x 0.9 x 60% = +0.6%

  • Hawthorn loss by less than 17 points: 1.0% x 2.05 x 30% + 0.8% x 0.9 x 60% = +0.1%

  • Hawthorn loss by 17 points or more: 1.0% x 2.05 x 30% + 0.8% x 0.9 x 60% = -0.8%

Worst case is a loss of 2.1% of the Combined Portfolio, and best case is a gain of 2.1%.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.