2021 - Round 3 : Time To Get Some Momentum

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Perhaps a slightly easier round to tip this week, with the all-game average expected margin at 15.7 points per game, and with all but one of the games expected to be won by about 4 goals or less, the exception being the North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs game, which the away team is expected to win by about 7 goals.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Despite some smallish expected margins, contrarians are again hard to find this week amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters. Home Sweet Home accounts for over half of them, and Consult The Ladder and the MoS twins for just one each. Both MoS twins think the Crows should start favourites against the Suns.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we have double-digit ranges for the Pies v Lions (11 points), Roos v Dogs (24 points), Crows v Suns (20 points), Tigers v Swans (11 points), Dons v Saints (19 points), Blues v Dockers (14 points), and Cats v Hawks (13 points) matchups, which is a considerably higher number than we’ve seen in recent weeks.

Extreme forecasts are somewhat evenly distributed, with MoSSBODS_Marg having five, Bookie_3 having four, MoSHBODS_Marg having three, RSMP_Weighted having two, and Bookie_Hcap and ENS_Linear having one each.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are double-digit percentage point ranges in the Pies v Lions (11% points), Crows v Suns (21% points), Dons v Saints (18% points), Blues v Dockers (15% points), and Cats v Hawks (12% points) games.

WAGERS

It’s a bit quieter this week on the head-to-head front for Investors with, in aggregate, just three head-to-head wagers totalling 2.6% of the Head-to-Head Fund. It’s more consequential in the other market, however, with three line wagers totalling 7.4% of the Line Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The various scenarios for each wagered-upon game in terms of its possible effects on the value of the Combined Portfolio are then:

  • North Melbourne win: 0.3% x 7 x 30% = +0.6%

  • North Melbourne draw: 0.3% x (8/2-1) x 30% = +0.3%

  • North Melbourne loss: -0.3% x 30% = -0.1%

  • Adelaide win: 1.5% x 1.31 x 30% + 3.8% x 0.9 x 60% = +2.6%

  • Adelaide draw: 1.5% x (2.31/2-1) x 30% + 3.8% x 0.9 x 60% = +2.1%

  • Adelaide loss by less than 8 points: -1.5% x 30% + 3.8% x 0.9 x 60% = +1.6%

  • Adelaide loss by 8 points or more: -1.5% x 30% - 3.8% x 60% = -2.7%

  • Essendon win: 0.8% x 2.55 x 30% + 2.9% x 0.9 x 60% = +2.2%

  • Essendon draw: 0.8% x (3.55/2-1) x 30% + 2.9% x 0.9 x 60% = +1.8%

  • Essendon loss by less than 28 points: -0.8% x 30% + 2.9% x 0.9 x 60% = +1.3%

  • Essendon loss by 28 points or more: -0.8% x 30% - 2.9% x 60% = -2.0%

  • Fremantle lose by less than 15 points: 0.7% x 0.9 x 60% = +0.4%

  • Otherwise: -0.7% x 60% = -0.4%

So, worst case is a loss of just over 5% of the Combined Portfolio, and best case is a gain of just under 6%.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.