2021 - Round 3 : Overs/Unders

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A business trip to Melbourne had me literally in the air when, I suspect, the markets at the TAB and Sportsbet first posted. I only got to them around 3:30pm, by which time the Totals offered had miraculously aligned, leaving Investors with $1.90 and $1.88 prices for the same risk in each market. Zero diversification benefits, then. But, more of that later.

Bookmakers are forecasting a slightly higher average total this week compared to last week at the same time, as are the MoS twins, but the latter are again more bearish about the levels. On average they have totals about 8 points per game lower.

The double-digit differences are in the Pies v Lions, and Tigers v Swans games, which the MoS twins see as producing 2 or 3 goals fewer than do the bookmakers.

Looking at the highests and lowests, we have:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS & MoSHBODS: Adelaide v Gold Coast

  • TAB and Sportsbet: Richmond v Sydney

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS & MoSHBODS: Collingwood v Brisbane Lions

  • TAB and Sportsbet: GWSv Melbourne

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Western Bulldogs

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: North Melbourne

WAGERS

Regular readers of this blog will by now no doubt have spotted a trend in our Overs/Unders betting and, if they’re adherents to the view that you can’t keep doing the same thing and expect different outcomes, will be disappointed. that, yes, we have 7 more under wagers this week.

Estimated overlays range from about 6 to 19 points, with five of them under 9 points. Surely it’s time for a little reversion to the mean.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Round 2 saw the bookmakers, between them, record the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for all four categories, with the TAB doing so for Away Team Scores and Game Totals, and Sportsbet doing so for Game Margins and Home Team Scores.

That left MoSSBODS with the overall lead on Home Team Scores, MoSHBODS with the overall lead on Game Margins and Away Team Scores, and the TAB with the overall lead on Game Totals.

MoSSBODS won just two of its seven wagers with the TAB leaving it with a 4 and 5 record for the season.

Across all games, MoSSBODS is now 9 from 18 (50%) against the TAB, and 8 from 18 (44%) against Sportsbet. MoSHBODS is 9 from 18 (50%) against both books.