2021 - Round 21 : Overs/Unders

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A return this week to the more common situation of the MoS twins forecasting, on average, lower totals than the bookmakers, although both groups are forecasting that average to be under 160 points per game.

Looking at the highests and lowests, we have.

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: Western Bulldogs v Essendon

  • Bookmakers: Carlton v Gold Coast

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: Hawthorn v Collingwood

  • Bookmakers: West Coast v Melbourne

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoS twins: Western Bulldogs

  • Bookmakers: Port Adelaide (also Carlton for Sportsbet)

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: GWS

WAGERS

Investors have four unders wagers this week, and a rejected overs wager on a game where rain is forecast.

The estimated overlays for the four games with wagers range from the minimally acceptable 6 points to over 20 points in the Hawks v Pies game where MoSSBODS has a similar margin to the bookmakers’, but expects it to be achieved by both teams scoring about 10 more points each.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Round 20 has MoSHBODS recording the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for Game Margins and Home Team Scores, Sportsbet doing the same for Away Team Scores, and the TAB prevailing on Game Totals.

That left MoSSBODS still with the best season-long performance on Away Team Scores, and Sportsbet with the best season-long performances on Game Margins, Home Team Scores, and Game Totals, although now joined by the TAB on Home Team Scores.

MoSSBODS lost both its unders wagers last week, one with the TAB, and one with Sportsbet. That left it with a 25 and 26 record with the TAB, and a 7 and 8 record with Sportsbet.

Overall, MoSSBODS finished on the right side of the Totals in 4 games against the TAB and Sportsbet, leaving it at 90 from 171 (53%) against the TAB, and 87 from 171 (51%) against Sportsbet. MoSHBODS went 2 from 9 against the TAB and 4 from 9 against Sportsbet to move to 88 from 171 (52%) against the TAB, and 89 from 171 (52%) against Sportsbet.