2021 - Round 21 : The Last Three Dozen

/

We’ve markets already for all nine games this week, and the TAB bookmaker expects the average victory margin across the lot of them to be just over three goals. In five games he expects the margin to be under three goals, and in two games over five goals.

Let’s get to the detail.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

The only source of contrarianism amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week, Home Sweet Home aside, has come in the Hawthorn v Collingwood game, where a number of Tipsters have opted for the very narrowly underdog Pies.

(Note that, in that Hawthorn v Collingwood game, the TAB bookmaker originally posted no line market. I’ve assigned one of Hawthorn -0.5 on the basis that the head-to-head market was $1.85/$1.95)

Amongst the Margin Predictors, we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in six games, including 19 points in the Adelaide v Port Adelaide Derby, 16 points in the Geelong v GWS game, and 15 points in the West Coast v Melbourne game.

Bookie_3 is the most extreme Predictor in four of the nine games, as is MoSSBODS_Marg.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are only four games with double-digit percentage point probability estimates, with the maximum of 12% points in the Carlton v Gold Coast game.

MoSSBODS_Prob has the most extreme probability estimates in six games, Bookie_LPSO in five games, and Bookie_RE in three.

WAGERS

It’s another big weekend coming up for Investors, as MoSHBODS has found four head-to-head bets it likes, and MoSSBODS has found three line bets it likes. They are, though, of far more modest size than last week’s so they, together, represent only 3.3% of the original Combined Portfolio compared to last week’s 7.9%.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The line bets range in size from 0.4% to 1.1% of the original Line Fund, and the head-to-head bets from 0.4% to 3.7% of the original Head-to-Head Fund.

A best-case set of results would see the price of the Combined Portfolio increase by about 3.6c and a worst-case set would see it decrease by about 3.3c.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.