2021 - Round 11 : Overs/Unders

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This week, in aggregate, looks a lot like last week, with MoS twins again expecting about 161 points per game, and the bookmakers a point or two higher. The 2021 season average now stands at 164.8 points per game, 87.1 for home teams, and 78.6 for away teams.

Looking at the highests and lowests, we see the following:.

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: West Coast v Essendon

  • TAB and Sportsbet: St Kilda v North Melbourne

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: Port Adelaide v Fremantle

  • TAB and Sportsbet: Gold Coast v Hawthorn

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: Richmond

  • TAB and Sportsbet: St Kilda

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: Collingwood

  • TAB and Sportsbet: Fremantle

WAGERS

Investors face four wagers this week, all of them unders, and would have had a fifth wager (an overs) but for another forecast of rain in Perth on Saturday.

Across the four bets, estimated overlays range from about 6.5 to 11 points.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Round 10 was an even better one for the MoS twins and saw MoSSBODS record the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for Away Team Scores and Game Totals, and MoSHBODS do the same for Game Margins and Home Team Scores.

Overall, that means that MoSSBODS now has the best season-long performance on Home Team Scores and Away Team Scores, MoSHBODS on Game Margins, and the TAB and Sportsbet, jointly, on Game Totals.

MoSSBODS won one of two wagers with the TAB last week, leaving it with a 16 and 18 record with them, and a 4 and 5 record with Sportsbet.

Overall, MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS finished on the right side of the Totals for both bookmakers in 5 of the 9 games, leaving MoSSBODS at 48 from 90 (53%) against the TAB, and 52 from 90 (52%) against Sportsbet, and MoSHBODS at 46 from 90 (51%) against the TAB, and 47 from 90 (52%) against Sportsbet.