2021 - Round 11 : Before The Byes
/Only one game this week is expected to be decided by less than two goals, while seven have bookmaker handicaps of from three to five goals, which has landed the all-game average at 24.4 points per game, up by over 4 points per game on last week.
TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
With so many games with large expected margins, and eight home team favourites, that has all but snuffed out contrarian tips amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters. All we have is a lone Home Sweet Home prediction of a Pies upset.
Whilst near unanimity around likely victors prevails, there is considerable disagreement about victory margins and associated win probabilities.
Amongst the Margin Predictors, we have double-digit ranges in six games this week, including ranges as large as 23 and 19 points in the Eagles v Dons, and Pies v Cats games.
Of the 18 extreme forecasts, MoSSBODS_Marg and Bookie_3 have five each, ENS_Linear has three, and RSMP_Hcap and MoSHBODS_Marg have two each.
Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, there are double-digit percentage point ranges in five games, including 20% points in the Eagles v Dons game, and 16% points in the Swans v Blues game.
Bookie_LPSO has six of the extreme estimates, MoSSBODS_Prob five, Bookie_OE and MoSHBODS_Prob three each.
WAGERS
Investors face seven wagers this week, two head-to-head wagers and five line wagers, two of which are on the same teams as head-to-head wagers. Combined, the seven bets represent over 5% of the original Combined Portfolio, which is the second most risked on head-to-head and line bets in a single round this season.
(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)
The various scenarios for each wagered-upon game in terms of its possible effects on the value of the Combined Portfolio are summarised in the Ready Reckoner below.
Essendon control most risk (in terms of the difference between the best and worst outcomes), with a maximum swing of 3.1c possible. Collingwood can affect a 2.6c change in the value of the Combined Portfolio, Carlton 2.1c, Western Bulldogs 1.9c, and Fremantle 0.9c.
Overall, the worst case is a loss of 5.5c for the Combined Portfolio, and best case is a gain of 5.1c.
To finish, here are MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS opinions about likely team scoring.
Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.
