2020 - Team Ratings After Round 17
/It’s very tight at the top of the MoSSBODS Leaderboard now, with the Top 3 separated by just 0.2 Scoring Shots, and the Top 6 by 2.2 Scoring Shots. Richmond now heads that Leaderboard after climbing three places in Round 17 and deposing Geelong.
Things were a little more stable on MoSHBODS, with Geelong and Richmond maintaining 1st and 2nd place respectively, although Port Adelaide did sneak into 3rd place.
Overall, 10 teams were re-ranked by MoSSBODS, and 12 by MoSHBODS, four by multiple spots on MoSSBODS, and four also by multiple spots on MoSHBODS. The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.9943.
Based on the similarity of Combined Rating, you could form the following rough groups based on the latest results:
Top Tier (span 2.2 Scoring Shots / 9.6 Points): Richmond, Geelong, Port Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, Collingwood and Western Bulldogs.
Middle Tier (span 1.9 Scoring Shots / 6.2 Points): St Kilda, Melbourne, Carlton, West Coast, and GWS.
Bottom Tier (span 5.3 Scoring Shots / 20.5 Points): Gold Coast, Hawthorn, Sydney, Fremantle, Essendon, Adelaide, and North Melbourne.
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS nowwith a Top 3 of Lions, Power, and Tigers, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Lions, Cats, and Dogs. On defence, MoSSBODS still has a Top 3 of Pies, Cats, and Tigers, and MoSHBODS still agrees.
On MoSSBODS, 5 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (no change), 5 are rated negatively on both (down 1), none are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 8 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (up 1). The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.614, which is up a little compared to last week.
And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked seven teams this week, but left the Top 7 unchanged.
The only team moving by more than a single ladder position was Fremantle, who climbed two places into 11th.
Nine teams remain rated as better-than-average by MARS.
Forming rough team groups, as we did for the MoS twins, we might get:
Top Tier (span 16.0 Rating Points): Geelong, Richmond, Port Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, and West Coast
Middle Tier (span 18.2 Rating Points): Collingwood, Western Bulldogs, GWS, St Kilda, Melbourne, and Fremantle
Bottom Tier (span 16.7 Rating Points): Carlton, Sydney, Hawthorn, Essendon, Gold Coast, Adelaide, and North Melbourne
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we find the highest difference, still, for West Coast, who can’t crack a Top 8 spot with either of the MoS twins.
In fact, the Eagles, along with the Dockers, are the only teams ranked more than three places differently from their ladder ordering by any of the Rating Systems.
MARS continues to provide the most outlying rankings of the three Systems, it having the outright most-extreme ranking for 10 of the teams, with West Coast the most notable example.
By comparison, MoSSBODS has the outright most-extreme ranking for seven teams, and MoSHBODS for just two.
Lastly, if we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that West Coast (5 spots) has the widest range of rankings, while 13 teams have rankings than differ by no more than 2 spots, including Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, North Melbourne, and Port Adelaide, for which all three Systems have the same ranking.
