2020 - Round 18 : Are We There Yet?
/This season, for lots of reasons, has felt like a very long one, but we have at last come to the final home-and-away round (as silly as that descriptor for the weekly games continues to be this year).
Only three games this week are expected to be decided by less than 2 goals, and only two more by less than 3 goals, in what might otherwise be seen as a not particularly entertaining round were it not for the impact that most games can potentially have on the makeup and ordering of the finalists.
Let’s see what the MoS models make of them.
TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
The Head-to-Head Tipsters have mostly played it safe this week as only Home Sweet Home in seven games, and the MoS twins in one, have gone contrarian.
Amongst the Margin Predictors, only one game sees forecasts on either side of zero, though there are double-digit ranges in four of the nine games.
Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are double-digit percentage point ranges in only three games.
WAGERS
Investors this week face four head-to-head bets ranging in size from 0.3% to 1.7% of the original Fund, and just one line bet of 4% of the original Fund.
(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)
The various scenarios for each wagered-upon game in terms of its possible effects on the value of the Combined Portfolio are then:
Kangaroos win: 0.3% x 7.50 x 30% + 4% x 0.9 x 60% = +2.8%
Kangaroos draw: 0.3% x (8.50/2 - 1) x 30% + 4% x 0.9 x 60% = +2.5%
Kangaroos loss by 36 points or less: -0.3% x 30% + 4% x 0.9 x 60% = +2.1%
Kangaroos loss by 37 points or more: -0.3% x 30% - 4% x 60% = -2.5%
Essendon win: +0.6% / draw: +0.1% / loss: -0.4%
Hawthorn win: +0.6% / draw: +0.1% / loss: -0.5%
Collingwood win: +0.6% / draw: +0.1% / loss: -0.4%
To finish, here are MoSS2020's and MoSH2020's opinions about likely team scoring.
Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.
