2020 - Round 18 : Overs/Unders

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We’ve been spoiled with a full board of Totals markets, the details of which appear below.

With a few exceptions, the Total forecasts of the MoS twins align with those of the bookmakers (who are of one voice this week, perhaps because the TAB and Sportsbet are taking their cues from the same place).

Overall, the MoS twins are mildly more optimistic about scoring, and we have:

  • HIGHEST SCORING GAME

    • MoSSBODS: Lions v Blues

    • MoSHBODS: Lions v Blues, Roos v Eagles, and Hawks v Suns

    • TAB & Easybet: Hawks v Suns

  • LOWEST SCORING GAME

    • MoSSBODS: & MoSHBODS: Pies v Power

    • TAB & Easybet: Lions v Blues, Swans v Cats, and Dockers v Dogs

    HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

    • MoSSBODS: & MoSHBODS: Lions

    • TAB & Easybet: Eagles

    LOWEST SCORING TEAM

    • MoSSBODS: & MoSHBODS: Swans

    • TAB & Easybet: Roos

WAGERS

MoSSBODS has spotted three potential wagers, but we’re passing on two of them, which would otherwise be overs bets in games where rain is forecast.

That leaves just a single unders wager on the last game of the round, where the estimated overlay is almost two goals.

Round 17 was highly unusual in that both MoS twins correctly called under or over in 8 of the 9 games but both bookmakers recorded Game Total Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) about 4 points per game better than the twins.

On the other MAE metrics for the round, MoSSBODS did best on Away Team Scores, MoSHBODS on Game Margins, while the TAB bookmaker also did best on Home Team Scores.

That left MoSHBODS with the season lead on Home Team Scores, the TAB with the lead on Game Margins and Game Totals, and Easybet with the lead on Away Team Scores.

MoSSBODS won both its wagers against the TAB last week, one over and one under, to leave it with a season-long 59% success rate against the them and a 57% success rate against Easybet in games on which it has wagered.

Across all games, MoSSBODS is now 82 from 144 (57%) against the TAB, and 83 from 144 (58%) against Easybet, while MoSHBODS is 86 from 144 (60%) against the TAB, and 87 from 144 (60%) against Easybet.

(This late-season surge is giving me pause about retiring from Overs/Unders wagering in 2021.)