2020 - Round 3 : Overs/Unders

All things considered, our over/under forecasts have been pretty good so far this season, so here’s another set of them for Round 3.

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The MoS twins are forecasting lower total scores in every game except Geelong v Carlton, and Brisbane Lions v West Coast, and have come in with a per game average about a goal lower than the bookmakers’. They are though, of course, still taking 80% of their underlying forecasts to come up with their 16-minute per quarter versions. Were they to use instead, say, 85%, then their adjusted forecasts would actually be higher than the bookmakers’.

• HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSS2020 & MoSH2020: Lions v Eagles

  • TAB: Dogs v Giants

  • Easybet: Roos v Swans

• LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Pies v Saints

• HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSS2020 and MoSH2020: Lions

  • TAB and Easybet: Cats

• LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Saints

WAGERS

This week we have six unders wagers again, with overlays ranging from 6.5 to 13.2 points.

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In Round 2, the MoS twins shared Mean Absolute Error (MAE) honours, with MoSSBODS recording the low MAE for Game Margins, Home Team Scores and Away Team Scores, and MoSHBODS recording the low MAE for Game Totals.

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On the back of that performance, MoSSBODS now leads all-comers on all four MAE metrics for the season.

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In games on which we had wagers, MoSSBODS went 2 and 2 against the TAB, and 2 and 0 against Easybet, leaving it with a profitable record against both bookmakers.

Across all games, MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS are now both 12 from 18 (67%) against the TAB, and 10 from 18 (56%) against Easybet.