2020 - Round 3 : Emerging Form

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In the 18 games we’ve had so far, scoring has been about 85% of what it was in the corresponding fixtures last season, so it might be that, in a few weeks time, we revisit the assumption underpinning a lot of the model forecasts that scoring in 16-minute quarters will be 80% of that in 20-minute quarters. For now, though, the 80% assumption stands.

It’s also way too early to be making any calls about home ground advantage, so the implicit assumption that it too is 80% of its normal value also still applies.

Not that I think it’s made all that much difference so far …

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Only a handful of contrarian tips amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week, one-third of them from the perennial contrarian, Home Sweet Home, and two-thirds of them in the Gold Coast v Adelaide game.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there’s unanimity in the choice of victor except in that Suns v Crows game, and there are narrow ranges for the margin forecasts, widest in the Cats v Blues game where it’s 18 points, and narrowest in the Dons v Dees game where it’s 4 points. The mean expected margin across all games and all Predictors just 9.8 points per game, which is again this round even smaller than the bookmaker’s average of 11.8 points per game.

MoSSBODS_Marg is the most extreme forecaster in five games this week, ENS_Linear in four Bookie_Handicap in four, and MoSHBODS_Marg in three.

Lastly, turning to the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, we find the largest range of probability estimates in percentage point terms in the Lions v Eagles game where it’s 22% points, followed by the Cats v Blues game where it’s 15%. In no other game is the range larger than 9% points.

Bookie_LPSO has the round's most extreme estimates in six contests, MoSHBODS_Prob in five, Bookie_RE in four, and MoSSBODS_Prob in four.

WAGERS

Only five wagers this week, two from the Head-to-Head Fund totalling 4% of that Fund, and three from the Line Fund totalling 5.5% of that Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The Brisbane Lions are the only team carrying both a head-to-head and a line bet and, as a consequence carry most risk this week (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes). The difference between successful and unsuccessful head-to-head and line wagers on them represents 3.7% of the original Combined Portfolio, as you can see in the Ready Reckoner below.

We also have Carlton controlling a 3.4% swing. Western Bulldogs 1.1%, and St Kilda 0.6%.

In total, 4.5% of the original Combined Portfolio is at risk, and the maximum upside is just over 4%.

To finish, here are MoSS2020's and MoSH2020's opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.