2020 - Round 9 : So Soon?
/It feels like only yesterday …
Yet another set of nine games this round where the bookmakers expect the final winning margin to be three goals or smaller. For five of those games they expect the margin to be under goals, which has resulted in an average expected margin of 11.5 points per game, which is up a couple of points on last week, but still very small in a wider, historic context.
TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
Home Sweet Home and Consult The Ladder are the main suppliers of contrarian head-to-head tips this week, with ENS_Linear and the MoS twins the only other contributors.
Amongst the Margin Predictors there are forecasts on either side of zero in three games, and ranges of 12 points or less in six games. The largest range is for that Dons v Lions game, where the MoS twins’ confidence in Brisbane has stretched it to 22 points. There’s also a 17 point range in the Eagles v Cats game where it is now the MoS twins’ relative lack of confidence in West Coast that has stretched the range.
The mean expected margin across all games and all Predictors is 9.6 points per game, which is almost two points per game smaller than the bookmaker’s.
MoSSBODS_Marg has more of the week’s most extreme forecasts than any other Predictor, recording such a forecast in seven games. ENS_Linear is most extreme in four contests.
Lastly, turning to the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, we find the largest range of probability estimates in percentage point terms in the West Coast v Geelong game where it’s 19% points, followed by the Gold Coast v GWS game where it’s 18% points, and the Essendon v Brisbane Lions game where it’s 16% points. No other game has a range greater than 9% points.
Bookie_LPSO has the round's most extreme estimates in six contests, MoSSBODS_Prob in five, and MoSHBODS_Prob in four.
WAGERS
This week’s wagering sees only three teams carrying the entirety of the wagering effort.
(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)
Gold Coast and Geelong are carrying about the same risk (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes), with the difference between successful and unsuccessful wagers on them representing around 3% of the original Combined Portfolio, as you can see in the Ready Reckoner below.
The remaining team, Brisbane Lions, controls a 2.6% swing.
In total, 4.4% of the original Combined Portfolio is at risk, and the maximum upside is 4.2%.
To finish, here are MoSS2020's and MoSH2020's opinions about likely team scoring.
Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.
