2020 - Round 8 : Overs/Unders

Even higher levels of agreement this week between the MoS twins and the bookmakers sees only two games where the differences in opinion about likely game totals exceed one goal.

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Those differences come in the North Melbourne v Carlton, and West Coast v Collingwood games, the latter of which is nonetheless considered by all forecasters as being the likeliest lowest-scoring game.

Overall, we have:

• HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Dees v Lions

• LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Eagles v Pies (for Easybet tied with Swans v Hawks, and Dockers v Cats)

  HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS & MoSHBODS: Lions

  • Easybet and TAB: Power

  LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: Eagles

  • TAB and Easybet: Dockers

WAGERS

Only those two games listed earlier have an estimated overlay sufficient to interest MoSSBODS, but there’s rain forecast in the one that would otherwise precipitate (yep, deliberate) an overs bet, so Investors are faced with a lone wager this week.

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The estimated overlay for that one bet is 7.5 points.

In Round 7, Easybet took two of the four Mean Absolute Error (MAE) honours (Game Margins and Home Team Scores), while the TAB produced lowest MAEs for Game Totals and MoSSBODS did likewise for Away Team Scores.

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That allowed MoSSBODS to wrest back the season-long MAE lead for Away Team scores, which it now adds to its lead on Game Margins and Home Team Scores. MoSHBODS still leads on Game Totals.

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In games on which we had wagers in Round 5, MoSSBODS went 1 and 1 against the TAB, and 1 and 0 against Easybet, leaving it with a 71% success rate against the TAB, and a 50% rate against Easybet.

Across all games, MoSSBODS is now 31 from 62 (50%) against the TAB and 32 from 62 (52%) against Easybet, while MoSSBODS is 32 from 62 (52%) against the TAB, and 33 from 62 (53%) against Easybet.