2020 - Round 8 : Another Rough One for Home Sweet Home?

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Another set of nine games this week where the bookmakers expect the final winning margin to be three goals or smaller. In seven of those games they expect to be within two goals, which has resulted in an average expected margin of just 9.4 points per game.

Last week, most of the models fared reasonably in a similarly challenging environment. Let’s see what they think this week.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Home Sweet Home aside, it’s the Giants v Tigers and Eagles v Pies games where the bulk of the contrarian head-to-head tipping is this week, with the MoS twins on the underdog’s side in both of those contests. Only Port Adelaide enjoys unanomous support.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there are forecasts on either side of zero in just two games (the two highlighted above), and ranges of 10 points or less in seven games. The largest range is for that Dees v Lions game, where the MoS twins’ confidence in Brisbane has stretched it to 19 points. There’s also a 14 point range in the Eagles v Pies game where it is now the MoS twins’ contrarian confidence in Collingwood that has stretched the range.

The mean expected margin across all games and all Predictors is 7.2 points per game, which is over two points per game smaller than the bookmaker’s.

Bookie_9 has more of the week’s most extreme forecasts than any other Predictor, recording such a forecast in six games. ENS_Linear and Bookie_Hcap are most extreme in four contests each.

Lastly, turning to the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, we find the largest range of probability estimates in percentage point terms in the West Coast v Collingwood game where it’s 19% points, followed by the Melbourne v Brisbane Lions game where it’s 16% points, and the Port Adelaide v St Kilda game where it’s 14% points. No other game has a range greater than 9% points.

MoSSBODS_Prob has the round's most extreme estimates in six contests, Bookie_RE and Bookie_LPSO in four each.

WAGERS

This week’s wagering is only a little less concentrated than last week’s, with four teams carrying the entirety of the wagering effort.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Three of them, Port Adelaide, Collingwood, and Brisbane Lions, are carrying about the same risk (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes), with the difference between successful and unsuccessful wagers on them representing around 2% of the original Combined Portfolio, as you can see in the Ready Reckoner below.

The remaining team, Adelaide, controls a 0.9% swing.

In total, just under 4% of the original Combined Portfolio is at risk, and the maximum upside is 3%.

To finish, here are MoSS2020's and MoSH2020's opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.