2019 - Round 7 : Overs/Unders
/Ah the comforting cadence of a week where the footy starts on Friday night and finishes on Sunday evening, and all the Totals markets are up by Wednesday …
What’s more, we seem to have reached some sort of agreement between machines and men, though mostly as a result of the men giving up on the idea that higher scores are finally here.
On average, the twins are still projecting totals only a point lower than the bookmakers.
The twins have the Lions v Swans game as the likely high-scoring game of the round, while the two bookmakers have it as the Cats v Dons game. All four forecasters have the Eagles v Suns game as most-likely low-scoring .
For most-likely high-scoring team the MoS twins have elected the Lions, although MoSHBODS has co-elected Adelaide. For most-likely low-scoring team it’s a unanimous vote for the Suns.
West Coast is the only team tipped to score three figures by any of the forecasters this weekend.
PERFORMANCE TO DATE
MoSSBODS continues to impress and, consequently, continues to lead all-comers on Game Margin mean absolute error (MAE) and Away Team Score MAE, but this week added Total Score MAE to that list, leaving MoSHBODS to lead only on Home Team Score MAE.
The MoS twins’ lead over the bookmakers on Total Score MAE now stands at about 3.5 points.
WAGERS
Just three wagers again this week, although one of them is our first overs wager. It comes in the last game of the round and would have been joined by a second on the Lions v Swans game if not for a forecast of inclement weather.
In those three games where we have wagered, overlays range from about 7 to 15 points. In an ideal world, that 15-point buffer should lead to a comfortable evening and the 7-point buffer precipitate only something of a light sweat. (Sure.)
After last week, MoSSBODS still has a 7 and 3 record against the TAB, to which it can now add a 15 and 8 record against Easybet in the games on which it has wagered.
Across all games, MoSSBODS is at 65% against both the TAB and 67% against Easybet, while MoSHBODS is at 63% against the TAB and 65% against Easybet. That’s what you get when you consistently call unders in an unexpectedly (for some) low-scoring season.
