2019 - Round 7 : No Forecasts From Me
/I’m done speculating about how well the MoS forecasters might do on the basis of bookmaker expected margins, so let me, instead, just let you know that the TAB bookmaker has an average expected margin this week of 19.5 points per game, which is the lowest for a Round 7 since - at least - 2012.
That’s seven successive rounds now with an average expectation below 20 points, the first time this has happened since sometime before 2012. Nonetheless, only two games in the round have an expected margin below 2 goals, and three have an expected margin of 4 goals or more.
The average expected margin for the season as a whole now stands at 16.7 points per game, which is over 4 points per game below last year’s all-season average.
To the MoS forecasters.
TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
About the same level of disagreement this week as last week - frankly, I’m wondering if it’s time to recruit new forecasters - with only Home Sweet Home voting underdog in more than a single game. The eventual MoSHPlay_Marg predictions will be vital in determining who will head the Leaderboard at round’s end, as the second-placed MoSSBODS_Marg has gone contrarian in only the Blues v Roos contest.
MoSSBODS_Marg is joined in that contrarianism by three other Head-to-Head Tipsters. Only Melbourne has, similarly, recruited more than a single dissenting voice.
Amongst the Margin Predictors, the battle of the Coasts has brought about the widest range of forecasts, spanning MoSSBODS_Marg’s 25-point prediction of a West Coast win to Bookie_3’s 55-point prediction.
Elsewhere, the forecast margin ranges run from a low of 3 in the Geelong v Essendon game, to a high of 27 in the Collingwood v Port Adelaide game, where the forecasts span either side of zero.
The mean expected margin across the nine games and all Margin Predictors is 18.3 points per game, which is a little over a point per game above the TAB bookmaker’s average.
C_Marg has the most extreme forecasts in five of the games, and MoSSBODS_Marg and Bookie_3 in three.
Turning lastly to the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, we find the largest range in percentage point terms in the Collingwood v Port Adelaide game where the forecasts span around 28% points from C_Prob’s 47% to Bookie_LPSO’s 75%. In seven other games the ranges are 9% points or higher, leaving the Cats v Dons game to register the narrowest range of just 2% points. C_Prob has the round's most extreme estimates in six contests, and Bookie_LPSO in four.
WAGERS
The Head-to-Head Fund is fairly quiet this week with just three bets, while the Line Fund has found six propositions that it likes.
Those head-to-head wagers range in size from 0.7% on the Western Bulldogs at $3.70, to 5.7% on Adelaide at $1.35, with the other bet, on the Lions, sized at 4.3%. Five of the six line bets are sized at 0.6% or less, while the largest of them is 4.2% on Gold Coast with 45.5 points start.
(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)
Gold Coast, therefore, carry the week’s largest risk of 4% (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes). The only other teams carrying risks above 1% are the Brisbane Lions (2%) and Adelaide (1.9%).
In total, just over 6% of the original Combined Portfolio is at risk across six games, and the maximum upside is 4.5%.
To finish, here are MoSSBODS' and MoSHBODS' opinions about likely team scoring.
Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.
