2019 - Round 23 : Overs/Unders

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The MoS twins are, again this week, on average forecasting slightly lower totals than the bookmakers, and have higher forecasts in only the Pies v Dons, Dogs v Crows, and Tigers v Lions games, the last two of which are expected to be played in or after rain.

For most-likely low-scoring game we have the MoS twins both opting for Cats v Blues, the TAB selecting Pies v Dons, and Easybet choosing Cats v Blues, and Power v Dockers. For most-likely high-scoring game we have the MoS twins on Dogs v Crows, and the two bookmakers on Suns v Giants.

As low-scoring team we have MoSSBODS and Easybet naming the Suns, MoSHBODS the Blues, and the TAB naming both the Suns and the Blues.

PERFORMANCE TO DATE

The mean absolute error (MAE) honours for the week were again shared, this time between MoSHBODS (lowest for Game Margins and for Away Team Scores), and Easybet (lowest for Home Team and for Total Scores).

That left the TAB 1st overall for the season on Total Score and Game Margin MAEs, and saw Easybet retains 1st on Away Team Score MAE and take 1st on Home Team Score MAE away from the TAB.

MoSHBODS now trails the TAB on Total Score MAE by just over 13 points, and MoSSBODS trails the TAB on Game Margin MAE by 65 points.

WAGERS

This week MoSSBODS has identified six possible wagers, two of which are overs bets ruled out by the Melbourne and Ballarat weather forecasts.

We’re left then with four bets, all unders, the overlays for which range from just over 6 to just over 22 points.

Last week there were two unsuccessful unders wager with the TAB, and one unsuccessful unders wager with Easybet. That moved MoSSBODS’ record against the TAB to 16 and 14, and that against Easybet to 23 and 20, and left the overall win rate at 53% for the season.

Across the entirety of the round, MoSSBODS landed on the right side of the TAB and of Easybet in 4 of the 9 games, while MoSHBODS did the same in 6 of the 9. That took MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS to 52% records for the season against the TAB, and 53% records against Easybet.