2019 - Round 23 : Anything in the Tank?

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The expected margins are higher this week, but there’s still ample reason to be interested in this weekend’s fare, even as a neutral, since spots in the Top 4 and the Top 8 are very much in play.

Just under 4 goals per game is the average bookmaker expected margin for Round 23, which is the highest average for a single round this season - in fact, the highest since the corresponding round in 2018.

In a round where eight of the favourites are home teams, no game has an expected margin of under 2 goals, and four games have expected margins of over 4 goals.

That’s taken the final home-and-away season average to 17.1 points per game, the lowest across the eight-year horizon we’ve been using for comparative purposes. The final median is 15.5 points per game, which ties 2017 for equal-lowest.

To the MoS forecasters then.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

With such large average expected margins and an octet of home team favourites, it’s no surprise that underdog picks by the Head-to-Head Tipsters are scarce this week. We have two from Consult The Ladder, and one each from Home Sweet Home and C_Marg.

That all but locks in Bookie Knows Best’s lead for another week, unless MoSHPlay gets very funky when its turn comes post team announcements.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, only the Tigers v Lions game has produced forecasts on either side of zero, but there are single-digit margin predictions in three other games. The mean expected margin across all games and all Predictors is 23.4 points per game, which is 0.3 points per game lower than the bookmaker’s average.

The largest range of forecasts is for the Cats v Blues game, where they span 39 points thanks to MoSSBODS_Marg and C_Marg. There’s also a 32-point range in the Suns v Giants game, a 26-point range in the Tigers v Lions game, and 25-point ranges in the Roos v Dees, and Eagles v Hawks games.

C_Marg is the most extreme forecaster in eight games this week, Bookie_3 in four, and MoSSBODS_Marg in three.

Turning, finally, to the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, we find five games with probability estimates spanning a range of 20% points or more, the largest in the Tigers v Lions game where it covers 43% to 70%. The smallest range comes in the Pies v Dons game where it’s just 9% points.

C_Prob has the round's most extreme estimates in eight contests, Bookie_LPSO and MoSSBODS_Prob in three each.

WAGERS

Investors have only six wagers this week, spanning only five teams. There are two head-to-head wagers, ranging in size from 0.2% on Gold Coast, to 5.7% on Port Adelaide, and four line wagers, ranging in size from 2.1% on Melbourne, to 4.5% on Hawthorn.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Most risk this week (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes) is borne by Hawthorn. The difference between a successful and unsuccessful line wager on them represents 4.3% of the original Combined Portfolio, as you can see in the Ready Reckoner below.

We also have Carlton carrying 3.2% risk, Gold Coast 2.7%, Melbourne 2.0%, and Port Adelaide 1.9%.

In total, almost 8% of the original Combined Portfolio is at risk, and the maximum upside is 6.5%.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS' and MoSHBODS' opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.